Extending Near-Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

(2018) Joeri Rogelj et al.   Nature Climate Change

Measuring Success: Improving Assessments of Aggregate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Goals

(2018) M. Louise Jeffery et al.   Earths Future

Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C

(2017) Andries F. Hof et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

(2017) Keywan Riahi et al.   GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

(2017) Joeri Rogelj et al.   Nature Communications

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

(2017) Adrian E. Raftery et al.   Nature Climate Change

Mind the gap – the case for medium level emission scenarios

(2016) Bas J. van Ruijven   CLIMATIC CHANGE

What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?

(2016) Benjamin M. Sanderson et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C

(2016) Joeri Rogelj et al.   NATURE

Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?

(2015) A. A. Fawcett et al.   SCIENCE

Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C

(2015) Joeri Rogelj et al.   Nature Climate Change

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

(2013) Detlef P. van Vuuren et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

(2013) Brian C. O’Neill et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

(2012) K. Frieler et al.   Nature Climate Change

Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates

(2012) Joeri Rogelj et al.   Nature Climate Change

2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C

(2012) Joeri Rogelj et al.   Nature Climate Change

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

(2011) Detlef P. van Vuuren et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C

(2009) Malte Meinshausen et al.   NATURE