Article
Operations Research & Management Science
Charles-Olivier Amedee-Manesme, Fabrice Barthelemy
Summary: Performance analysis is a crucial process in finance, but traditional methods have limitations due to their assumption of Gaussian distribution. This paper introduces the modified Sharpe ratio as a solution, using value at risk instead of volatility. However, this approach may have pitfalls related to non-monotonic quantile functions. The paper proposes a specific rearrangement procedure to effectively use the modified Sharpe ratio, demonstrating its benefits in delivering different rankings and better distribution approximations.
ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Management
Xiaofei Wang, Bing Xing Wang, Yili Hong, Pei Hua Jiang
Summary: This paper introduces a generalized confidence interval method for the Gamma degradation model, evaluates its performance through Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrates it with two examples. The results show that the proposed approach outperforms traditional Wald CIs and bootstrap-p CIs in terms of coverage probabilities.
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Saman Taheri, Ali Razban
Summary: This study develops probabilistic demand estimation models using a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework. The results show that the proposed algorithm achieves accurate future demand estimation and can be updated with new information. The algorithm outperforms other machine learning methods in terms of mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error in two real-world case studies.
SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Economics
Mazin A. M. Al Janabi
Summary: A model for optimizing multiple-asset portfolios with semi-parametric liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk was developed, showing dominance over other competing portfolio strategies. The results were robust across different trading scenarios and promising for practical optimization techniques in large multiple-asset portfolios and operation research models in financial institution management.
JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
(2021)
Article
Economics
Mazin A. M. Al Janabi
Summary: The study developed a model for optimizing multiple-asset portfolios, which consistently outperformed other competing strategies across various market scenarios. The obtained results have promising applications in financial institution management with large multiple-asset portfolios.
JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
(2021)
Article
Environmental Studies
Polina Alexeenko, Eilyan Bitar
Summary: We conducted a real-world pilot study to investigate a new pricing and control mechanism for coordinating residential EV charging loads. The mechanism offers EV owners a range of pricing options based on their willingness to delay their charging completion times. By optimizing the real-time power drawn by EVs, a smart charging system minimizes strain on the grid while ensuring all EVs are charged by user-requested deadlines. Our findings show that, on average, customers were willing to delay their charging by over eight hours, allowing the smart charging system to flatten the aggregate load curve and eliminate demand spikes. Importantly, customer participation rates remained stable throughout the study, indicating the viability of this mechanism as a non-wires alternative to meet the increasing electricity demand from EVs.
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Statistics & Probability
Christopher Withers, Saralees Nadarajah
Summary: Suppose Xn is a sample with log likelihood nl(theta), where theta is an unknown parameter in Rp with prior distribution xi(theta). The MLE is theta ⠂. We prove that theta|Xn is asymptotically normal with mean theta ⠂ and covariance-n-1l⠂.(theta)-1, while theta ⠂|theta is asymptotically normal with mean theta and covariance n-1[I(theta)]-1. Thus, Bayesian inference can be used to approximate frequentist inference under mild conditions.
BRAZILIAN JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Vikas Singh, Tukaram Moger, Debashisha Jena
Summary: This paper proposes an analytical probabilistic load flow (PLF) approach that considers conventional generator outages, load variability, and random branch outages. The proposed PLF performs contingency sequencing with fuzzy logic to eliminate random line checking and avoid masking mistakes faced by performance index-based algorithms. Results of equivalent systems of the Indian southern and western power grids are analyzed and validated with those obtained using the Monte Carlo simulation method, demonstrating the accuracy and low computational burden of the suggested method.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Information Systems
Hafez Amiri, Mohammad Mohammadi, Mazaher Karimi, Mohammad Rastegar, Amir Rostami
Summary: The study introduces a new probability-boxes (p-boxes) approach to analyze uncertainties in the power system, particularly suitable for problems with insufficient information, and uses the Cornish-Fisher expansion series to estimate probability bounds. The proposed method shows precision and efficiency in the IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems.
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Dejan Zivkov, Marijana Joksimovic, Suzana Balaban
Summary: This paper evaluates the downside risk of agricultural commodities using GARCH model, finding that soybean oil has the lowest mVaR and mCVaR, followed by soybeans, while wheat and oats have the highest downside risk. The authors suggest investors mitigate loss risk by combining agricultural assets with other low-risk financial or commodity assets.
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS-ZEMEDELSKA EKONOMIKA
(2021)
Article
Thermodynamics
Nuh Erdogan, Sadik Kucuksari, Jimmy Murphy
Summary: This study proposes a multi-objective optimization model to determine the optimal charging infrastructure for a transition to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) at workplaces. The model considers all cost aspects of a workplace charging station and incorporates smart charging strategies and a charging behavior model. Through testing and sensitivity analysis, it is shown that the proposed model can achieve significant cost savings compared to single-objective optimal models and current charging practices.
Article
Physics, Condensed Matter
R. N. Lira, P. S. Riseborough, J. Silva-Valencia, M. S. Figueira
Summary: In this study, we employ the cumulant Green's functions method to analyze the single-band Hubbard model. By diagonalizing a cluster and using cumulants, we obtain the full Green's functions for the lattice. Our results are benchmarked against other methods and show that the cumulative Green's function method provides accurate results for various parameters in Hubbard models and other strongly correlated models.
JOURNAL OF PHYSICS-CONDENSED MATTER
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Chenxu Wang, Dichen Liu, Fei Tang, Chengxi Liu
Summary: The article introduces a method for calculating hybrid power flow to handle uncertainties in power systems, such as load demands and wind power outputs. This method assumes unified optimal scenarios for wind power and transforms HPIPF calculation into IPF and PPF calculations, which are validated for accuracy and efficiency.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Yinfeng Sun, Dapeng Xia, Zichun Gao, Zhenhao Wang, Guoqing Li, Weihua Lu, Xueguang Wu, Yang Li
Summary: This paper proposes a probabilistic load flow method based on the cumulant method to handle the complex and changeable operating conditions of the power system. By setting control modes and calculating the traditional AC/DC flow, relevant samples are obtained and the probability density function of node voltage and line power is derived using the series expansion method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through experiments on actual transmission systems.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS
(2022)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Yajun Zhang, Jie Deng, Kangkang Zhu, Yongqiang Tao, Xiaolin Liu, Ligang Cui
Summary: The growing demand for electric buses and limited resources for deploying electric charging infrastructure pose a big challenge for decision-makers. Planning the locations and expansion sequence of electric charging stations is crucial due to its impacts on bus deployment and city traffic networks. Combining factors like land resources, capital investment, and grid load is essential to provide decision support for station location.
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Puyu Wang, Pengcheng Liu, Tianming Gu, Ningqiang Jiang, Xiao-Ping Zhang
Summary: This paper investigates the small-signal stability of a DC current flow controller (CFC) integrated meshed multi-terminal HVDC (MTDC) system. The unique contributions include considering the dynamics of the CFC, interconnected voltage-source converters (VSCs), and the DC transmission lines in the small-signal modeling, identifying the switching effect of capacitive components in the pi-type DC transmission lines, taking into account the impact of the CFC on the AC side of the MTDC system, and investigating the influence of the CFC control system/structural parameters on the small-signal stability of the entire system. The proposed method is verified to be effective in different MTDC systems with CFC and useful for the configuration and parametric design of CFC integrated meshed MTDC systems.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Guolong Ma, Jianing Li, Xiao-Ping Zhang
Summary: In this paper, an energy storage system (ESS) capacity optimization model considering the internal energy autonomy indicator and grid supply point (GSP) resilience management method is proposed. A three-stage coupled model is established, including investment decision, day-ahead operation strategy, and real-time power fluctuation smoothing control. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through simulations.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Qirun Sun, Zhi Wu, Wei Gu, Xiao-Ping Zhang, Pengxiang Liu, Guangsheng Pan, Haifeng Qiu
Summary: This paper proposes a tri-level multi-energy system planning method for zero energy buildings (ZEBs) that considers long- and short-term uncertainties. The method tackles long-term temperature change and short-term source-load uncertainties separately. It generates representative scenarios for long-term uncertainties and applies a hybrid stochastic and robust optimization (HSRO) method for short-term uncertainties. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed planning method.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
(2023)
Article
Energy & Fuels
Mohamed Alashqar, Conghuan Yang, Ying Xue, Zhaoxi Liu, Weiye Zheng, Xiao-Ping Zhang
Summary: The increasing electricity demand necessitates the installation of more generating units in the grid. However, this leads to fault current levels exceeding the limits of electrical equipment, especially in interconnected grids. Existing solutions have drawbacks, while the superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) shows promise. This paper proposes the use of the resistive SFCL to enhance the stability of an interconnected power system, with a case study conducted on a two-area system to analyze the optimal value and locations of the SFCL. Results demonstrate that the system remains stable without the need for tuning the power system stabilizer (PSS).
FRONTIERS IN ENERGY RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Thermodynamics
Zhibao Wang, Lijie Wei, Xiaoping Zhang, Guangzhi Qi
Summary: This paper investigates the impact of population aging on energy consumption structure in mainland China using a multivariate panel regression model. The results show that the total energy consumption in mainland China is increasing, with regional heterogeneity. The high-value energy consumption zones are concentrated in China's eastern region. The energy consumption structure is evolving with a decreasing share of coal consumption. Population aging has a significant positive correlation with national-level energy consumption structure, but a negative effect in medium-value coal consumption zones at the provincial level. GDP, the share of secondary industry, and energy price also play important roles.
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Nan Chen, Yuefeng Yang, Lanfang Li, Chunyan Cui, Ying Xue, Xiao-Ping Zhang
Summary: This paper proposes a new commutation voltage calculation method for asymmetrical faults in Multi-Infeed LCC-HVDC systems. It also introduces CF prediction criteria based on the Voltage-Time Area (VTA) theory and a calculation method for the extra commutation voltage needed for each inverter to avoid CF. Simulation results using the CIGRE LCC-HVDC Benchmark system and a six-machine-two-area (6M2A) test system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Chenyixuan Ni, Laijun Chen, Xiaotao Chen, Junyi Zhai, Shengwei Mei, Xiao-Ping Zhang
Summary: This paper proposes a novel solar-thermal-assisted AA-CAES (ST-AA-CAES) system that integrates variable thermal energy storage to improve system efficiency. The results show that the electric-to-electric conversion efficiency, round-trip efficiency, and exergy efficiency of ST-AA-CAES can reach 56.4%, 95.5%, and 55.9%, respectively. The article also demonstrates the exergy efficiency and destruction details of each subsystem. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied to analyze the economic feasibility of optimizing integrated energy systems, offering high accuracy, convenient implementation, and fast convergence. The system can be applied in areas with abundant solar energy resources, providing high efficiency and multi-energy supply capability.
IET RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Senlin Yu, Xiaoru Wang, Xiao-Ping Zhang
Summary: This paper proposes a fault detection method based on the ratio of voltage integrals to improve the sensitivity of the single-end method to high-resistance faults, ensuring the continuous and reliable operation of the modular multilevel converter (MMC)-based HVDC grid during dc faults.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Junyi Zhai, Yuning Jiang, Xiao Chen, Jianing Li, Colin N. Jones, Xiao-Ping Zhang
Summary: This paper focuses on the decentralized adjustable robust operation problem for multi-area integrated electricity and natural gas systems (IEGS). It proposes an asynchronous alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) based decentralized model that allows each area to perform local updates with information from a subset of neighbors, solving the synchronization and heterogeneity issues of existing distributed algorithms. The combination of linear decision rules (LDRs) and automatic generation control (AGC) systems is also introduced to effectively handle renewable energy uncertainty.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Zhi Wu, Yiqi Li, Wei Gu, Zengbo Dong, Jingtao Zhao, Weiliang Liu, Xiao-Ping Zhang, Pengxiang Liu, Qirun Sun
Summary: This paper proposes a multi-timescale voltage control scheme using multi-agent deep reinforcement learning. Through assigning control variables to multiple agents and applying the Gumbel-Softmax distribution, the scheme achieves the effect of distributed control. By centralized learning and decentralized execution, the scheme can obtain the optimal coordinated control strategy of multiple regulators adaptively. Case studies conducted on the modified IEEE-123 bus system show that the MADRL-based method outperforms other methods.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Suhan Zhang, Wei Gu, Xiao-Ping Zhang, Hai Lu, Ruizhi Yu, Haifeng Qiu, Shuai Lu
Summary: This paper introduces the effectiveness of the dynamic simulation of integrated electricity and gas systems in accurate operational guidance, and proposes a novel adaptive step size control strategy for variable-coefficient partial differential equation solvers.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID
(2023)
Article
Thermodynamics
Jinjing Tan, Yang Li, Xiaoping Zhang, Weiqi Pan, Wenjun Ruan
Summary: This paper proposes an operation model of a district integrated energy system (IES) with a Stackelberg game approach to facilitate energy coupling and coordinate distributed resources economically. The model includes a dynamic integrated demand response (IDR) mechanism, utilizes scenario theory and the conditional value at risk (CVaR) method to model and capture uncertainties and risks. The paper also introduces innovative aspects in the business mode, defining the relation between risk sources and bearers and ensuring economic benefits for participants through diverse business channels. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through a case study and the benefits of all participants as well as the significant effects of IDR programs are demonstrated.
Article
Energy & Fuels
Yue Qiu, Suyang Zhou, Wei Gu, Yuping Lu, Xiao-Ping Zhang, Gaoyan Han, Kang Zhang, Hongkun Lyu
Summary: This paper investigates the effects of hydrogen-enriched compressed natural gas (HCNG) on the dynamics of the gas network and proposes an improved model for the HCNG network. It also introduces an optimal dispatch model for the electricity-HCNG-integrated energy system (E-HCNG-IES) considering the HCNG supply chain. The proposed methodology is evaluated through numerical testbeds, demonstrating the economic and environmental benefits of increasing hydrogen volume fraction in the E-HCNG-IES.
CSEE JOURNAL OF POWER AND ENERGY SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Xin Ma, Conghuan Yang, Xiao-Ping Zhang, Ying Xue, Jianing Li
Summary: This paper proposes full Double-Precision and Mixed-Precision Floating-Point schemes for real-time Electromagnetic Transients (EMT) simulation on FPGA platform, aiming to achieve optimal balance between numerical accuracy and computational resource cost. Through experimental comparison on rotating and non-rotating components, it is found that full Double-Precision has advantages in addressing phase shift problem. The proposed system-level Mixed-Precision scheme can achieve close accuracy to full Double-Precision scheme with 20% average reduction in resource consumption.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS
(2023)
Proceedings Paper
Energy & Fuels
Hussaini Ali Adamu, Xiao-Ping Zhang
Summary: The conventional weighted least squares (WLS) power system state estimation algorithm often uses the same weights, causing significant deviation compared to the true solution. This paper proposes a new 3-phase re-weighted nonlinear regression method that incorporates the Welsch weight function to minimize the deviation caused by measurement errors. The proposed method outperforms the conventional state estimation method in terms of feasibility and estimation accuracy.
2023 IEEE 3RD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE IN POWER ENGINEERING APPLICATIONS, ICPEA
(2023)