Article
Environmental Sciences
Akio Tada, Haruya Tanakamaru
Summary: This study proposes unbiased point estimation and interval estimation methods for river loads based on the rating curve (RC) method, using importance sampling and the bootstrap method. The effectiveness of these methods is demonstrated for river loads from both small catchments and large watersheds. The results show unbiased estimates and appropriate coverage of confidence intervals, regardless of the RC model used.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ingmar E. J. de Vries, Moritz F. Wurm
Summary: The study combines magnetoencephalography and naturalistic dynamic stimuli to show hierarchical predictive neural representations of observed actions. This approach allows investigating predictive processing of our dynamic world and can be applied to other naturalistic stimuli, providing important insights into how our brain predicts unfolding external dynamics.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Jasper A. Vrugt, Debora Y. de Oliveira
Summary: The KG efficiency is a widely used metric for evaluating the goodness-of-fit between observations and model simulations. However, without a formal description of its confidence intervals, we cannot quantify its uncertainty.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Atul Kumar Rai, Zafar Beg, Abhilash Singh, Kumar Gaurav
Summary: This study estimated discharge in different reaches of the Ganga River in India using water level data from multiple satellite altimeter missions. By establishing stage-discharge rating curves, monthly discharge of the river was estimated based on the altimeter water level. The analysis showed a good agreement between estimated discharge and in-situ measurements, indicating the effectiveness of the method.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Statistics & Probability
Xiaohui Liu, Wei Long, Liang Peng, Bingduo Yang
Summary: In this article, a unified predictability test for quantile regression is developed, which can be applied regardless of the presence of intercept and persistence of a predictor. The developed test combines data splitting, weighted inference, and a random weighted bootstrap method. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the new approach outperforms other competing methods in terms of size and power performance, particularly when the predictive regressor contains a nonzero intercept. In an empirical application, the quantile predictability of monthly S&P 500 returns between 1980 and 2019 is revisited.
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
(2023)
Article
Mathematics
Sandy Zabell
Summary: This article reviews Sir R.A. Fisher's perspective on Bayesian inference, focusing on his Fiducial Argument.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xudong Zhou, Menaka Revel, Prakat Modi, Takuto Shiozawa, Dai Yamazaki
Summary: This study proposes a simple and robust method for correcting river bathymetry by comparing the bias between stage-discharge rating curves. The method is able to reduce the absolute bias compared to traditional methods and is robust to runoff deviations.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
E. Perret, B. Renard, J. Le Coz
Summary: A model accounting for transient changes due to vegetation was developed to manage stage-discharge relations at hydrometric stations affected by seasonal aquatic vegetation. The model estimates parameters and uncertainty through Bayesian inference and allows the use of qualitative observations on the plant growth state for validation. The case study showed significant improvements in predicting water discharge compared to a standard model with no vegetation module.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Statistics & Probability
Kenneth Rice, Lingbo Ye
Summary: This article introduces a new method for determining credible intervals, based on the loss function and Bayes rule, which can be used for any model and prior, and justifies widely used choices for credible intervals.
AMERICAN STATISTICIAN
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
M. Darienzo, B. Renard, J. Le Coz, M. Lang
Summary: The method proposed in the study utilizes a Bayesian framework and recursive segmentation to estimate shift times in stage-discharge rating curves, effectively separating observational changes from rating curve uncertainties.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Water Resources
Myungjin Lee, Younghoon Yoo, Hongjun Joo, Kyung Tak Kim, Hung Soo Kim, Soojun Kim
Summary: This study focuses on developing a new rating curve for predicting water levels in the Ulsan tidal river in South Korea, with a particular emphasis on the impacts of climate change and urbanization. The study demonstrates a method to estimate water levels by considering various hydrological factors, achieving less than 10% error during validation.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jitendra Kr Vyas, Muthiah Perumal, Tommaso Moramarco
Summary: The application of entropy theory in hydrometric measurements establishes a relationship between maximum and mean flow velocities, and a proposed two-steps approach for discharge estimation based on this relationship shows promising results in both Italy and India. The proposed method proves to be a viable alternative to the traditional velocity-area method, providing accurate discharge estimations with high efficiency values.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Behavioral Sciences
Andrea Putica, Kim L. Felmingham, Marta I. Garrido, Meaghan L. O'Donnell, Nicholas T. Van Dam
Summary: This theoretical article outlines how predictive coding models of emotion offer a parsimonious framework to explain PTSD treatment response within a value-based decision-making framework.
NEUROSCIENCE AND BIOBEHAVIORAL REVIEWS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Claudio M. Pierard, Deborah Bassotto, Florian Meirer, Erik van Sebille
Summary: Most marine plastic pollution originates from land, but once in the ocean, it is difficult to determine its source. Researchers have developed a Bayesian inference framework that combines information about plastic emitted by rivers with simulation techniques, allowing them to calculate the probability that a piece of plastic found at sea came from a specific river source. This framework provides the basis for attributing marine plastic pollution to its source.
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
B. Camenen, N. Gratiot, J-A Cohard, F. Gard, V. Q. Tran, A-T Nguyen, G. Dramais, T. van Emmerik, J. Nemery
Summary: The hydrological dynamics of the Saigon River is influenced by a variety of factors, with this study proposing a low-cost method for estimating river discharge. Seasonal behaviors were observed in both water level and water discharge, with rainfall having little impact on them. Evidence of interactions between precipitation and coastal waters was found.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2021)