Nutrient export from catchments on forested landscapes reveals complex nonstationary and stationary climate signals

Headwater catchment hydrology and biogeochemistry are influenced by climate, including linear trends (nonstationary signals) and climate oscillations (stationary signals). We used an analytical framework to detect nonstationary and stationary signals in yearly time series of nutrient export [dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), nitrate (NO3--N), and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP)] in forested headwater catchments with differential water loading and water storage potential at the Turkey Lakes Watershed in Ontario, Canada. We tested the hypotheses that (1) climate has nonstationary and stationary effects on nutrient export, the combination of which explains most of the variation in nutrient export; (2) more metabolically active nutrients (e. g., DON, NO3--N, and TDP) are more sensitive to these signals; and (3) catchments with relatively low water loading and water storage capacity are more sensitive to these signals. Both nonstationary and stationary signals were identified, and the combination of both explained the majority of the variation in nutrient export data. More variation was explained in more labile nutrients (DON, NO3--N, and TDP), which were also more sensitive to climate signals. The catchment with low-water storage potential and low water loading was most sensitive to nonstationary and stationary climatic oscillations, suggesting that these hydrologic features are characteristic of the most effective sentinels of climate change. The observed complex links between climate change, climatic oscillations, and water nutrient fluxes in headwater catchments suggest that climate may have considerable influence on the productivity and biodiversity of surface waters, in addition to other drivers such as atmospheric pollution.