Article
Engineering, Civil
Conrad Wasko, Yawen Shao, Elisabeth Vogel, Louise Wilson, Q. J. Wang, Andrew Frost, Chantal Donnelly
Summary: Changes in the hydrologic cycle have significant impacts on agricultural productivity, water resources availability, and environmental management in Australia. While northern parts of Australia have experienced increasing rainfall and water availability, the southwest and southeast coast have seen declines in rainfall, affecting runoff and soil moisture. Standardised runoff index indicates increasing streamflow droughts across large parts of Australia.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Meirong Wang, Xiuping Yao, Jun Wang, Boqi Liu, Zhu Zhu, Shunwu Zhou, Jiashuang Yuan
Summary: Contrasting trends in summer total rainfall (STR) over the Tibetan Plateau have been observed in recent years, with an increase in the northern region and a decrease in the southern region. This study identifies four significant centers of rainfall trends and highlights the varying contributions of different rainfall intensities in each region. Mechanistically, the variations in rainfall intensity are attributed to the strengthening of upper-level westerly jet, changes in moisture transport, and convective available potential energy.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Robert Vautard, Julien Cattiaux, Tamara Happe, Jitendra Singh, Remy Bonnet, Christophe Cassou, Dim Coumou, Fabio D'Andrea, Davide Faranda, Erich Fischer, Aurelien Ribes, Sebastian Sippel, Pascal Yiou
Summary: In the past 70 years, extreme heat in Western Europe has been increasing at a faster rate than predicted by climate models. This discrepancy is largely due to changes in atmospheric circulation, which have resulted in more frequent southern airflows over Western Europe. The models analyzed in this study have underestimated the impact of external forcing on circulation or the low-frequency variability, or both.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zelalem Dendir, Belay Simane Birhanu
Summary: The Ethiopian climate-sensitive economy is highly susceptible to the impacts of climate-change-induced extreme events. Therefore, it is crucial to examine extreme daily precipitation and temperature in the context of climate change to advocate for climate change adaptation at the local level. This study focused on the spatial changes of extreme precipitation and temperature indices in the Gurage zone of Southern Ethiopia from 1986 to 2016. The findings indicate a consistent warming trend and inconsistent changes in precipitation extremes in the study area. Increase in warm days and nights and decrease in cold days and nights were statistically significant in most of the agroecologies. The duration of extreme trends showed inconsistency, but a drier condition was observed in the lowland agroecology. Based on these findings, appropriate climate adaptation efforts are needed at the local scale.
ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
T. Reshma, Hamza Varikoden, C. A. Babu
Summary: This study investigates the characteristics of summer monsoon rainfall in the West Coast and Central India regions of the Indian subcontinent from 1901 to 2020. The results show a significant decreasing trend in summer monsoon rainfall in Central India, and significant increasing and decreasing trends in low and very high intensity rainfall, respectively. In the West Coast region, extreme intensity rainfall shows a significant increasing trend. The study also analyzes the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and global sea surface temperature, revealing significant changes in the rainfall patterns and their correlation with sea surface temperature. The recent changes in rainfall and rainfall-SST relationship indicate a clear climate shift.
PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rohit Mann, Anju Gupta, Amit Dhorde, Swati Sharma
Summary: This study analyzed the effects of climate change on rainfall variability and extreme rainfall events in Mumbai. The results showed an increasing trend in average annual rainfall and the frequency of heavy and extreme heavy rainfall events. Several change points were identified, with the highest change points occurring between 2001 and 2005. These extreme climate events could have negative consequences for the ecosystem and ecological resources of the study area.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zacharia Florence Mtewele, Xiyan Xu, Gensuo Jia
Summary: The study on precipitation extremes in East Africa over the past two decades reveals an increase in intensity and frequency from January to May, particularly in the area extending from Madagascar to the Tanzanian coastal zone. However, a significant decrease in precipitation extremes is observed in the western part of Ethiopia to Congo-Uganda, especially from June to September.
JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yucen Ge, Jiapeng Miao, Xianmei Lang, Dong Si, Dabang Jiang
Summary: The joint effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on eastern China summer precipitation (ECSP) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are investigated using simulations from five climate models. The results show that the influence of the PDO and AMO on ECSP differ during the MCA and LIA periods. During the MCA, the PDO-induced meridional wave train dominates, while the AMO-induced zonal wave train has a secondary effect. In contrast, during the LIA, the AMO-induced zonal wave train has an overwhelming impact on ECSP.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Monica Carneiro Alves Senna, Gutemberg Borges Franca, Matheus Francisco Pereira, Mauricio Soares da Silva, Enio Pereira de Souza, Ian Cunha DAmato Viana Dragaud, Lucio Silva de Souza, Nilton Oliveira Moraes, Vinicius Albuquerque de Almeida, Manoel Valdonel de Almeida, Mauricio Nogueira Frota, Afonso Augusto Magalhaes de Araujo, Karine do Nascimento Cardozo, Lude Quieto Viana
Summary: This study aims to detect changes in precipitation extremes in the Paraiba do Sul hydrographic basin and investigate their correlation with oceanic oscillations such as ENSO, PDO, and AMO. The results show increasing trends in annual precipitation, very humid days, and extreme events in the northeast sector of the basin, while the southwest sector experiences decreasing trends in annual precipitation and very humid days but an increase in the maximum amount of rainfall on five consecutive days. The correlation analysis reveals non-significant correlations between oceanic oscillation indices and most annual extreme precipitation indices, except for La Nina, which can influence the number of consecutive dry days in the region.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nellie Amosi, Richard O. Anyah
Summary: The study assesses the trends of precipitation and temperature extremes in Malawi and Mozambique, finding a drying trend during the primary rainfall season and variations in wet and dry anomalies. The northern region of Malawi experiences drier conditions while the southern region is relatively wetter. Temperatures are increasing, especially in the northern and southern parts of Malawi.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yi Fan, Jiayao Li, Shoupeng Zhu, Huixin Li, Botao Zhou
Summary: Southeast Asia, as a highly populated agricultural region, is highly exposed to extreme weather and climate. This study analyzed the trends and variability characteristics of extreme precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia from 1981 to 2017, revealing significant trends and variations in different regions.
METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
B. Wubishaw Endale, E. Mini Simphiwe, A. Abegaz Yimer
Summary: This study analyzed trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices at different local farming calendar time periods in the Merti district of Ethiopia. Results showed varied changing trends in extreme rainfall indices in different agro-climatic zones, with more complex variations observed during sowing and maintenance period. However, upward trends were found for most extreme temperature indices, indicating potential negative impacts on crop production in the region.
MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Thanh Ngo-Duc
Summary: This study analyzes the characteristics and trends of extreme rainfall in Northern Vietnam from 1961 to 2018 using data from 37 meteorological stations. The findings show variations in annual rainfall and a declining trend in total rainfall during wet days, while rainfall intensity has increased in most stations, particularly in the dry season. The study also identifies decreasing trends in maximum 1-day precipitation, consecutive 5-day precipitation, and the number of moderate and heavy rainfall days. However, there is no trend in the annual maximum number of consecutive dry/wet days. Furthermore, the frequency of extreme rainfall events exceeding the 5-year and 10-year return values has decreased in recent decades. These findings have significant implications for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts in the region.
VIETNAM JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Platon Patlakas, Christos Stathopoulos, Helena Flocas, Nikolaos S. Bartsotas, George Kallos
Summary: The study analyzed the climatic characteristics, rainfall trends, and extreme events on the Arabian Peninsula over a thirty-year period. It found that the eastern and top half of the western part of the peninsula had the lowest risk associated with extreme events, providing important information for various sectors of society and economy.
Article
Ecology
Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, Jos Van Orshoven
Summary: This study presents an optimization method based on a rainfall-runoff model to identify optimal locations for land use changes that can mitigate runoff accumulation and flood hazard. The method was tested in two medium-sized catchments in Belgium and results showed that afforestation and winter cover crops can reduce runoff volumes, while sealing increases runoff. Priority pixels with high flow accumulation have a larger impact on downstream runoff, emphasizing the importance of enhancing infiltration capacity in river valleys.
LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING
(2022)
Article
Agronomy
Bertold Marien, Dimitri Papadimitriou, Titta Kotilainen, Paolo Zuccarini, Inge Dox, Melanie Verlinden, Thilo Heinecke, Joachim Marien, Patrick Willems, Mieke Decoster, Aina Gasco, Holger Lange, Josep Penuelas, Matteo Campioli
Summary: Accurate estimations of phenophases in deciduous trees are crucial for understanding forest ecosystems and their impact on climate. This study collected chlorophyll content index data for four deciduous tree species from Belgium, Norway, and Spain over four years. The results revealed the phenological strategies and seasonal trends in leaf senescence for dry and warm years and identified daily average temperature, global radiation, and vapor pressure deficit as the main drivers of the timing of senescence transition. The study also found suitable modeling distributions for chlorophyll content index and senescence transition date.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Water Resources
Santiago Mendoza Paz, Patrick Willems
Summary: This study focuses on assessing the strengths and weaknesses of quantile mapping in climate downscaling based on global climate model projections in Southern Africa. Different methods, including parametric and non-parametric transformations, are used and validated using cross-validation. The results reveal that non-parametric methods and parametric methods using exponential-type transformation have generally good skill in correcting biases. The uncertainty contribution analysis shows that the climate models are the largest contributors to overall uncertainty, while in some cases the methods have the highest uncertainty share. The stationary assumptions of quantile mapping are found to be robust. The projections indicate a tendency towards dryer conditions and intensified precipitation events in the region, with strong intra-regional variations.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ilie Storms, Sanne Verdonck, Bruno Verbist, Patrick Willems, Pieterjan De Geest, Martin Gutsch, Nathalie Cools, Bruno De Vos, Mats Mahnken, Joachim Lopez, Jos Van Orshoven, Bart Muys
Summary: This study proposes a methodology to improve yield tables for 11 tree species in the Netherlands and Flanders, Belgium, using climate-sensitive process-based modeling. The results show an average increase in stand productivity from 1987-2016 compared to 1961-1990, and simulations suggest that this positive growth trend will continue in the coming decades. Local site variability is also found to be important in assessing forests' response to climate change.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Water Resources
Daan Bertels, Patrick Willems
Summary: This study focuses on the impact of climate change on salt intrusion in the Campine Canals in Belgium. The findings indicate that salt water intrusion, which is rare under current climate conditions, will increase in the future. The study emphasizes the need for a shift in canal management to address climate trends and water quality problems.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2022)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Gavi Alavi-Murillo, Jan Diels, Jere Gilles, Patrick Willems
Summary: This article provides an overview of the soil organic carbon (SOC) status in the South American Andes region. It highlights the importance of ecosystems such as peatlands, forests, and grasslands as carbon sinks. The study also suggests that global warming may pose a threat to SOC stocks. Limited research and data availability hinder conclusive results on the impact of local soil management practices on SOC concentration.
REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Carlos Munoz Lopez, Li-Pen Wang, Patrick Willems
Summary: In this study, a conceptual rain storm model was constructed using historical long-term radar data archive to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in Belgium at fine scales. This analysis can serve as a basis for future applications, particularly in refining existing long-term spatial rainfall generators.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Economics
Peter Donk, Sebastian Sterl, Wim Thiery, Patrick Willems
Summary: While high renewable electricity targets are achievable currently, long-term power sector planning should consider the dependency of renewable energy potential on climate and potential future changes. Power balance optimization modeling using the REVUB approach is a powerful tool for informed decision making. A case study in Suriname reveals an optimized renewable electricity share potential of 50% to 90% based on hydro, wind, and solar power resources in future scenarios.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Daan Bertels, Patrick Willems
Summary: This paper presents a new machine learning model architecture, based on LSTM cell, which enforces the principle of mass conservation to introduce scientific knowledge and enhance the model's robustness. The proposed model shows higher accuracy than established reference neural networks for predicting salinization of navigable waterways in Belgium under new conditions.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yanqun Ren, Jinping Liu, Tongchang Zhang, Masoud Jafari Shalamzari, Arfan Arshad, Tie Liu, Patrick Willems, Huiran Gao, Hui Tao, Tingli Wang
Summary: This study examines the heatwave events in seven geographic subregions of China from 1979 to 2018 using the latest intensity-area-duration framework. The results show that heatwaves of all durations have increased in frequency and intensity, with shorter heatwaves increasing at a faster rate. Xinjiang and Southern China have the most frequent heatwave occurrence, while the Southwest and Southern China have the highest increase in heatwave frequency. In terms of spatial trends, Southern China, Xinjiang, and the Southwest have the highest rates of intensity growth, influence area, and duration respectively. The findings provide insights for developing strategies to prepare for and mitigate the adverse effects of heatwave occurrences.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hossein Tabari, Patrick Willems
Summary: Compound hot-dry events have the potential to overwhelm natural and human systems, leading to significant damages and socioeconomic tipping points. Climate change amplifies the impacts of these events, and their future risk and role are poorly understood. By the end of the 21st century, an additional 0.7-1.7 billion people will be exposed to compound events globally, with cropland exposure increasing by 2-5.7 million km(2). Countries with weak governance will experience a larger increase in risk compared to those with good governance, highlighting the importance of effective governance in managing and mitigating compound events.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hossein Tabari, Patrick Willems
Summary: Drought is a significant natural hazard that will become more likely in the future, affecting regions such as the Mediterranean, Amazon, southern Africa, and Central America. Sustainable development can reduce drought risk and population exposure, as well as the number of countries facing high drought risk. This highlights the need for a comprehensive cross-disciplinary drought risk outlook that considers exposure and vulnerability.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Microbiology
Ursula Fels, Patrick Willems, Margaux De Meyer, Kris Gevaert, Petra Van Damme
Summary: By applying dual proteome profiling, this study obtained a detailed and holistic proteomic perspective on host-pathogen interactions during Salmonella infection. Data-independent acquisition (DIA) proteomics outperformed data-dependent acquisition (DDA) in identifying the downregulated bacterial proteome response during early stages of infection. This study revealed specific proteomic signatures and interdependent host/pathogen responses, as well as potential novel infection markers and signaling responses.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartosova, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindric Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendekova, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiri Jakubinsky, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urosev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, Nenad Zivkovic
Summary: Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. Little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders. This study characterised and assessed the impacts and perceptions of two recent drought events in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard, and impact.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, Jos van Orshoven
Summary: This paper presents an approach for assessing the relative impact of land use changes on flood damages and risk, in order to achieve sustainable flood risk management. Through a case study in the undulating catchment of Flanders, Belgium, it is found that afforestation can reduce risk by 57%, while sealing leads to a risk increment of less than 1%.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)