An optimization model for renewable energy generation and its application in China: A perspective of maximum utilization

In response to climate change, China's power industry is undertaking the task of reducing carbon emissions. Renewable energy generation has become an important option. For the government and state grid companies, it is important to know the maximum possible capacities of renewable energy generation from its different sources in order to plan the construction of the power grid in the future. In this paper, several important factors affecting the development of renewable energy generation are identified through a review of the existing literature (such as cost, technical maturity and so on) and analyzed. Combined with the learning curve model, the technology diffusion model and expectations about future economic development in China, a new model, the Renewable Energy Optimization Model (REOM), is developed to analyze the development of three renewable energy sources (wind power, solar power and biomass power) from 2009 to 2020. Results show that (1) the maximum installed capacities of wind power, solar power and biomass power will reach 233321, 26680 and 35506 MW in 2020; (2) from 2009 to 2020, biomass power will develop rapidly at the early stage while wind power is developed massively at the final stage and solar power has relatively stable growth; (3) due to the added capacity in the early periods, the unit investment cost of solar power shows a large decline, which is good for its following scale development; (4) the investment ratio constraint has a large effect on the development of wind power while the constraint of on-grid proportion of renewable energy generation has a significant effect on the development of wind power and solar power. The results have important policy implications for long-term energy planning in developing countries, such as China and India. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.