Journal
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
Volume 370, Issue 1962, Pages 1121-1139Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0305
Keywords
ELPIS-JP; stochastic weather generator; LARS-WG; climate change; impact assessment; Japan
Categories
Funding
- Office of Science, U. S. Department of Energy
- Global Environmental Research Fund [S-5-3, S-5-1]
- Federal Ministry for Education and Research
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) of the UK
- BBSRC [BBS/E/C/00004938] Funding Source: UKRI
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [BBS/E/C/00004938] Funding Source: researchfish
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We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981-2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile-quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081-2100 using projections from three S-53 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e. g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.
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