Patterns and variability in seedling carbon assimilation: implications for tree recruitment under climate change

Predicting future forests' structure and functioning is a critical goal for ecologists, thus information on seedling recruitment will be crucial in determining the composition and structure of future forest ecosystems. In particular, seedlings' photosynthetic response to a changing environment will be a key component determining whether particular species establish enough individuals to maintain populations, as growth is a major determinant of survival. We quantified photosynthetic responses of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), pignut hickory (Carya glabra Mill.), northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) and eastern black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.) seedlings to environmental conditions including light habitat, temperature, soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) using extensive in situ gas exchange measurements spanning an entire growing season. We estimated the parameters in a hierarchical Bayesian version of the Farquhar model of photosynthesis, additionally informed by soil moisture and VPD, and found that maximum Rubisco carboxylation (V-cmax) and electron transport (J(max)) rates showed significant seasonal variation, but not the peaked patterns observed in studies of adult trees. Vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture limited J(max) and V-cmax for all four species. Predictions indicate large declines in summer carbon assimilation rates under a 3aEuro...A degrees C increase in mean annual temperature projected by climate models, while spring and fall assimilation rates may increase. Our model predicts decreases in summer assimilation rates in gap habitats with at least 90% probability, and with 20-99.9% probability in understory habitats depending on species. Predictions also show 70% probability of increases in fall and 52% probability in spring in understory habitats. All species were impacted, but our findings suggest that oak species may be favored in northeastern North America under projected increases in temperature due to superior assimilation rates under these conditions, though as growing seasons become longer, the effects of climate change on seedling photosynthesis may be complex.