A quantitative review of abundance‐based species distribution models

Relationships between population densities and niche‐centroid distances in North American birds

(2020) Luis Osorio‐Olvera et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Contrasting latitudinal patterns in diversity and stability in a high‐latitude species‐rich moth community

(2020) Laura H. Antão et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival

(2020) Cristian Román-Palacios et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Climate Change Drives Poleward Increases and Equatorward Declines in Marine Species

(2020) Reuben A. Hastings et al.   CURRENT BIOLOGY

Incorporating physiology into species distribution models moderates the projected impact of warming on selected Mediterranean marine species

(2020) Inbal Gamliel et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

(2020) Jose A. Fernandes et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Modelling species distributions in dynamic landscapes: The importance of the temporal dimension

(2020) Margaret E. Andrew et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction

(2020) Gerardo Ceballos et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Integrating multiple sources of ecological data to unveil macroscale species abundance

(2020) Keiichi Fukaya et al.   Nature Communications

Temperature-related biodiversity change across temperate marine and terrestrial systems

(2020) Laura H. Antão et al.   Nature Ecology & Evolution

Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land

(2020) Jonathan Lenoir et al.   Nature Ecology & Evolution

The influence of stochasticity, landscape structure and species traits on abundant–centre relationships

(2020) Tad A. Dallas et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Insect occurrence in agricultural land‐uses depends on realized niche and geographic range properties

(2020) Conor A. Waldock et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Species loss drives ecosystem function in experiments, but in nature the importance of species loss depends on dominance

(2020) Mark A. Genung et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Testing macroecological abundance patterns: The relationship between local abundance and range size, range position and climatic suitability among European vascular plants

(2020) Maria Sporbert et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

A closer examination of the ‘abundant centre’ hypothesis for reef fishes

(2020) Hagar Yancovitch Shalom et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

(2020) Richard B. Sherley et al.   Ecology and Evolution

Protecting Biodiversity (in All Its Complexity): New Models and Methods

(2020) Laura J. Pollock et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Spatial validation reveals poor predictive performance of large-scale ecological mapping models

(2020) Pierre Ploton et al.   Nature Communications

Temporal variability is key to modelling the climatic niche

(2020) Maria Angeles Perez‐Navarro et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Consistent population declines but idiosyncratic range shifts in Alpine orchids under global change

(2020) Costanza Geppert et al.   Nature Communications

Ocean planning for species on the move provides substantial benefits and requires few trade-offs

(2020) M. L. Pinsky et al.   Science Advances

Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios

(2019) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   Nature Communications

The shape of abundance distributions across temperature gradients in reef fishes

(2019) Conor Waldock et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

On population abundance and niche structure

(2019) Luis Osorio‐Olvera et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Essential biodiversity variables for mapping and monitoring species populations

(2019) Walter Jetz et al.   Nature Ecology & Evolution

A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels

(2019) Anna Norberg et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Superorganisms or loose collections of species? A unifying theory of community patterns along environmental gradients

(2019) Kevin Liautaud et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Testing methods in species distribution modelling using virtual species: what have we learnt and what are we missing?

(2019) Christine N. Meynard et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Synergistic Effects of Climate and Land-Cover Change on Long-Term Bird Population Trends of the Western USA: A Test of Modeled Predictions

(2019) Matthew G. Betts et al.   Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

Identifying restoration hotspots that deliver multiple ecological benefits

(2019) Ben L. Gilby et al.   RESTORATION ECOLOGY

Long‐term demographic surveys reveal a consistent relationship between average occupancy and abundance within local populations of a butterfly metapopulation

(2019) Torsti Schulz et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Reflections on niches and numbers

(2019) Robert D. Holt   ECOGRAPHY

Extensive mismatches between species distributions and performance and their relationship to functional traits

(2019) Teresa Bohner et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Model complexity affects species distribution projections under climate change

(2019) Philipp Brun et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Thermal biology mediates responses of amphibians and reptiles to habitat modification

(2018) A. Justin Nowakowski et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Bright spots in agricultural landscapes: Identifying areas exceeding expectations for multifunctionality and biodiversity

(2018) Barbara Frei et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Long-term shifts in the north western Mediterranean coastal seascape: The habitat-forming seaweed Codium vermilara

(2018) Aurora M. Ricart et al.   MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN

Stay or go – how topographic complexity influences alpine plant population and community responses to climate change

(2018) Bente J. Graae et al.   PERSPECTIVES IN PLANT ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS

Spatial abundance models and seasonal distribution for guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in central Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

(2018) Celina E. Flores et al.   PLoS One

Transferring biodiversity models for conservation: Opportunities and challenges

(2018) Ana M. M. Sequeira et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Biological responses to the press and pulse of climate trends and extreme events

(2018) R. M. B. Harris et al.   Nature Climate Change

Extinction risk from climate change is reduced by microclimatic buffering

(2018) Andrew J. Suggitt et al.   Nature Climate Change

Challenges of transferring models of fish abundance between coral reefs

(2018) Ana M.M. Sequeira et al.   PeerJ

Addressing common pitfalls does not provide more support to geographical and ecological abundant-centre hypotheses

(2018) L. Santini et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Incorporating microclimate into species distribution models

(2018) Jonas Lembrechts et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Habitat suitability estimated by niche models is largely unrelated to species abundance

(2018) Tad A. Dallas et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

An inverse latitudinal gradient in speciation rate for marine fishes

(2018) Daniel L. Rabosky et al.   NATURE

Evaluating collinearity effects on species distribution models: An approach based on virtual species simulation

(2018) Paulo De Marco et al.   PLoS One

Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models

(2018) Katherine L. Yates et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Disentangling the climatic and biotic factors driving changes in the dynamics of Quercus suber populations across the species‘ latitudinal range

(2018) Luis Matías et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Predicting cetacean abundance and distribution in a changing climate

(2018) Elizabeth A. Becker et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

(2018) Sean L. Maxwell et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Tradeoffs in demographic mechanisms underlie differences in species abundance and stability

(2018) Lauren M. Hallett et al.   Nature Communications

Moving beyond presence and absence when examining changes in species distributions

(2017) Michael B. Ashcroft et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Translating local benthic community structure to national biogenic reef habitat types

(2017) Anna K. Cresswell et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Do persistent rare species experience stronger negative frequency dependence than common species?

(2017) Glenda Yenni et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Cross-taxa generalities in the relationship between population abundance and ambient temperatures

(2017) Diana E. Bowler et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Functional Rarity: The Ecology of Outliers

(2017) Cyrille Violle et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

A pantropical analysis of the impacts of forest degradation and conversion on local temperature

(2017) Rebecca A. Senior et al.   Ecology and Evolution

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks

(2017) Christopher F. Clements et al.   Nature Ecology & Evolution

Modelling of species distributions, range dynamics and communities under imperfect detection: advances, challenges and opportunities

(2016) Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita   ECOGRAPHY

When can positive interactions cause alternative stable states in ecosystems?

(2016) Sonia Kéfi et al.   FUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

(2016) Damaris Zurell et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Conservation implications of source-sink dynamics within populations of endangered Maculinea butterflies

(2016) Natalia Timus et al.   JOURNAL OF INSECT CONSERVATION

Bright spots among the world’s coral reefs

(2016) Joshua E. Cinner et al.   NATURE

Global marine protected areas do not secure the evolutionary history of tropical corals and fishes

(2016) D. Mouillot et al.   Nature Communications

Direct effects dominate responses to climate perturbations in grassland plant communities

(2016) Chengjin Chu et al.   Nature Communications

Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures

(2016) François Rebaudo et al.   Frontiers in Physiology

Abundance models improve spatial and temporal prioritization of conservation resources

(2015) Alison Johnston et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

The rise of novelty in ecosystems

(2015) Volker C. Radeloff et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change

(2015) Johan Ehrlén et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Abundance of common species, not species richness, drives delivery of a real-world ecosystem service

(2015) Rachael Winfree et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Microclimates buffer the responses of plant communities to climate change

(2015) Ilya M. D. Maclean et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

REVIEW: Predictive ecology in a changing world

(2015) Nicolas Mouquet et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

The roles of microclimatic diversity and of behavior in mediating the responses of ectotherms to climate change

(2015) H. Arthur Woods et al.   JOURNAL OF THERMAL BIOLOGY

Estimating abundance of unmarked animal populations: accounting for imperfect detection and other sources of zero inflation

(2015) Francisco V. Dénes et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Potential species distribution modeling and the use of principal component analysis as predictor variables

(2015) Gustavo Cruz-Cárdenas et al.   Revista Mexicana de Biodiversidad

Global Distribution and Conservation of Evolutionary Distinctness in Birds

(2014) Walter Jetz et al.   CURRENT BIOLOGY

Distinguishing geographical range shifts from artefacts of detectability and sampling effort

(2014) Amanda E. Bates et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

(2014) Cory Merow et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Predicting species’ abundances from occurrence data: Effects of sample size and bias

(2014) Carlos Yañez-Arenas et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Seeing the woods for the trees - when is microclimate important in species distribution models?

(2014) Jonathan Bennie et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds

(2014) Javier Gutiérrez Illán et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems

(2014) Amanda E. Bates et al.   GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS

Testing the ability of topoclimatic grids of extreme temperatures to explain the distribution of the endangered brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata)

(2014) Michael B. Ashcroft et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Strong contributions of local background climate to urban heat islands

(2014) Lei Zhao et al.   NATURE

Global Priorities for Marine Biodiversity Conservation

(2014) Elizabeth R. Selig et al.   PLoS One

Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia

(2014) Lee Hannah et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Targeting Global Protected Area Expansion for Imperiled Biodiversity

(2014) Oscar Venter et al.   PLOS BIOLOGY

Systematic global assessment of reef fish communities by the Reef Life Survey program

(2014) Graham J Edgar et al.   Scientific Data

Prioritizing global marine mammal habitats using density maps in place of range maps

(2013) Rob Williams et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

(2013) Jose A. Fernandes et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Microclimatic challenges in global change biology

(2013) Kristen A. Potter et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Integrating abundance and functional traits reveals new global hotspots of fish diversity

(2013) Rick D. Stuart-Smith et al.   NATURE

Essential Biodiversity Variables

(2013) H. M. Pereira et al.   SCIENCE

Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

(2013) Alison Johnston et al.   Nature Climate Change

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling

(2012) Mary Susanne Wisz et al.   BIOLOGICAL REVIEWS

Ecological niche structure and rangewide abundance patterns of species

(2012) E. Martinez-Meyer et al.   Biology Letters

The effect of spatial resolution on projected responses to climate warming

(2012) P. K. Gillingham et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

How are tree species distributed in climatic space? A simple and general pattern

(2012) Véronique Boucher-Lalonde et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Trees are rarely most abundant where they grow best

(2012) B. J. McGill   Journal of Plant Ecology

The global diversity of birds in space and time

(2012) W. Jetz et al.   NATURE

Testing the predictive performance of distribution models

(2012) Volker Bahn et al.   OIKOS

Comparison of five modelling techniques to predict the spatial distribution and abundance of seabirds

(2011) Steffen Oppel et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Modelling changes in species’ abundance in response to projected climate change

(2011) Anna R. Renwick et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Using the negative binomial distribution to model overdispersion in ecological count data

(2011) Andreas Lindén et al.   ECOLOGY

Modelling ecological systems in a changing world

(2011) M. R. Evans   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

A theoretical model linking interspecific variation in density dependence to species abundances

(2011) Ryan A. Chisholm et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Quantitative methods for defining percentage area targets for habitat types in conservation planning

(2010) Carlo Rondinini et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Spillover from marine reserves and the replenishment of fished stocks

(2010) BENJAMIN S. HALPERN et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION

A count in the dark

(2010) Daniel Pauly et al.   Nature Geoscience

Abundance and the Environmental Niche: Environmental Suitability Estimated from Niche Models Predicts the Upper Limit of Local Abundance

(2009) Jeremy VanDerWal et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Effect of characteristics of butterfly species on the accuracy of distribution models in an arid environment

(2009) Tim Newbold et al.   BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION

Managing the impact of invasive species: the value of knowing the density–impact curve

(2009) Hiroyuki Yokomizo et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Predicting the distributions of marine organisms at the global scale

(2009) Jonathan Ready et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Some like it hot: microclimatic variation affects the abundance and movements of a critically endangered dung beetle

(2009) TOMAS ROSLIN et al.   Insect Conservation and Diversity

Bringing the Hutchinsonian niche into the 21st century: Ecological and evolutionary perspectives

(2009) R. D. Holt   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

(2008) M. S. Wisz et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Slope, aspect and climate: Spatially explicit and implicit models of topographic microclimate in chalk grassland

(2008) Jonathan Bennie et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING