Journal
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
Volume 21, Issue -, Pages S12-S20Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.014
Keywords
Urban growth; Urbanisation; Africa; Migration; Displacement; Down-scaled climate models
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Funding
- United Kingdom Government Office for Science
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie
- Division Of Behavioral and Cognitive Sci [1134890] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Scientific evidence for global environmental change in Africa presents a prima facia case for increased human migration and displacement. Closer scrutiny of the evidence on demographic change, however, suggests that migration and displacement are less important variables in explaining the human dimensions of global environmental change on the continent than is commonly projected. Natural population growth in cities is a more important dynamic in the evolving system of human settlement in Africa and this significant shift in where people live, both now and in the future is overlooked by the emphasis on the potential impact of environmentally induced migration. Even without any movement from the countryside, cities represent the fastest growing sector of the sub-Saharan African population. The existing vulnerability of African cities, with their fast growing populations and weak management means any environmental change is likely to have significant consequences for cities. Taking the sub-Saharan African demographic evidence seriously means that the scholarly and policy emphasis currently directed to GEC migration and displacement might be more effectively redirected to questions of the interface between global environmental change and urban areas. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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