Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the high-lands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months. Citation: Jones, A. E., and A. P. Morse (2012), Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23707, doi:10.1029/2012GL054040.