Journal
FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS
Volume 34, Issue -, Pages 17-29Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2013.05.005
Keywords
Foresight; Forest products markets; Modeling; Paper products; Outlook; Structural change
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Funding
- Foundation for European Forest Research (FEFR)
- Metsamiesten Saatio Foundation
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Outlook studies have long traditions in the forest sector - they have been conducted regularly since the 1950s. Until very recently, the approaches used in these studies have remained relatively unchanged. However, the global forest sector has been faced with major structural changes and its operating environment has become ever more complex and interlinked with other sectors. The aim of this article is to review the forest sector outlook approaches in face of these changes, and to analyze how well they have been able to capture and project the changes. Moreover, we raise the question of whether they seem informative enough for the purposes of today's decision makers and other stakeholders. The results indicate that the existing outlook studies have not been able to sufficiently capture the structural changes in global paper markets, and it may be that they have difficulties in considering the possible structural changes in other markets as well. In order to assess the changes occurring in the operating environment more systematically, and to better meet the needs of policy-makers and stakeholders, there are potential advantages in complementing the current modeling approach dominant in the forest sector with other methods from the field of foresight. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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