Journal
EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
Volume 37, Issue 12, Pages 8333-8342Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2010.05.050
Keywords
Time series; Earthquakes forecasting; Clustering
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Funding
- Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology [BIA2004-01302, TIN-68084-C02]
- Junta de Andalucia [P07-TIC-02611]
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Earthquakes arrive without previous warning and can destroy a whole city in a few seconds, causing numerous deaths and economical losses. Nowadays, a great effort is being made to develop techniques that forecast these unpredictable natural disasters in order to take precautionary measures. In this paper, clustering techniques are used to obtain patterns which model the behavior of seismic temporal data and can help to predict medium-large earthquakes. First, earthquakes are classified into different groups and the optimal number of groups, a priori unknown, is determined. Then, patterns are discovered when medium-large earthquakes happen. Results from the Spanish seismic temporal data provided by the Spanish Geographical Institute and non-parametric statistical tests are presented and discussed, showing a remarkable performance and the significance of the obtained results. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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