Trends and correlation of antibacterial usage and bacterial resistance: time series analysis for antibacterial stewardship in a Chinese teaching hospital (2009-2013)

The purpose of this investigation was to describe the effect of antibacterial stewardship and evaluate the trends and correlation of antibacterial resistance and usage from 2009 to 2013 in a tertiary-care teaching hospital in northwest China. Antibacterial usage was expressed as defined daily doses per 100 patients per day (DDDs/100 PDs). Hospital-wide population-level data and time series analysis were used to evaluate the trends and determine associations between antibacterial exposure and acquisition of resistance. Yearly consumption of overall antibacterials significantly decreased from 66.54 to 28.08 DDDs/100 PDs (beta = -10.504, p < 0.01). The resistant rates of the five most frequently isolated species (including Escherichia coli, Acinetobacter baumannii, Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Klebsiella pneumoniae) significantly decreased or remained stable, and none of them showed a statistically significant upward trend. The medical quality indicators got better or remained stable. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models demonstrated that the monthly resistance rate of P. aeruginosa to imipenem was strongly correlated with antipseudomonal carbapenems usage (beta = 34.94, p < 0.001), as did the correlation of P. aeruginosa to meropenem with antipseudomonal third-generation cephalosporins usage (beta = 32.76, p < 0.01) and K. pneumoniae to amikacin with aminoglycosides usage (beta = 22.01, p < 0.001). The decreased antibacterial use paralleled the improved bacterial resistance without deteriorating medical quality indicators during antimicrobial stewardship. It also suggests that optimum antibiotic use is necessary to alleviate the threat posed by resistant microorganisms at the hospital level.