Quantitative risk assessment to compare the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via quarantine, the Pet Travel Scheme and the EU Pet Movement Policy

Rabies was eradicated from the UK in 1922 through strict controls of dog movement and investigation of every incident of disease. Amendments were made to the UK quarantine laws and the Pet Travel Scheme (PETS) was subsequently introduced in 2000 for animals entering the UK from qualifying listed countries. European Regulation 998/2003 on the non-commercial movement of pet animals initiated the European Union Pet Movement Policy (EUPMP) in July 2004. The introduction of EUPMP harmonized the movement of pet animals within the EU (EUPMPlisted) but raised the possibility of domestic animals entering the UK from a non-EU state where rabies is endemic (EUPMPunlisted). A quantitative risk assessment was developed to estimate the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via companion animals that are incubating the disease and enter through PETS or EUPMP compared to quarantine. Specifically, the risk was assessed by estimating the annual probability of rabies entering the UK and the number of years between rabies entries for each scheme. The model identified that the probability of rabies entering the UK via the three schemes is highly dependent on compliance. If 100% compliance is assumed, PETS and EUPMPunlisted (at the current level of importation) present a lower risk than quarantine, i.e. the number of years between rabies entry is more than 170 721 years for PETS and 60 163 years for EUPMPunlisted compared to 41 851 years for quarantine (with 95% certainty). If less than 100% compliance is assumed, PETS and EUPMPunlisted (at the current level of importation) present a higher risk. In addition, EUPMPlisted and EUPMPunlisted (at an increased level of importation) present a higher risk than quarantine or PETS at 100% compliance and at an uncertain level of compliance.