System dynamics for predicting the impact of traffic noise on cardiovascular mortality in Madrid

The impact of road traffic noise on health is an important issue worldwide. In Madrid (Spain), the existing high daily noise levels all year round have been associated with short-term cardiovascular mortality. A system dynamics model is constructed to estimate the evolution of the traffic noise impact on the population older than 65 in Madrid over the upcoming years. This strategy allows to make predictions based on yearly variations in traffic intensity, population at risk, motor vehicle-related technological advances and lifestyles, and urban planning policies. Madrid harbours a persisting noise epidemic since 1980, which would be eradicated in 2040 at the earliest if significant action for noise abatement were taken.