Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
Volume 24, Issue 3, Pages 322-328Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.09.004
Keywords
Escherichia coli model; Uncertainty; Systematic error; Random error; Monte Carlo analysis
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Funding
- Melbourne Water and the Co-operative Research Centre for Water Quality and Treatment
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A conceptual model of Escherichia coli behaviour in catchments, the EG model, Coupled with a standard hydrological model has been previously developed and tested. This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainty of the modelled pathogen concentrations and loads due to uncertainties in the models data inputs. The data collected at three different large Australian catchments were used. Firstly, uncertainties in the models input data, i.e. hourly rainfall, monthly potential evapotranspiration, catchment size and daily Surface pathogen deposition rates, were assessed. Random and systematic sources of errors were taken into account. It was found that systematic errors in rainfall and random errors in pathogen deposition rates have the biggest impact on uncertainty in the models output. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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