4.7 Article

Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

Journal

ENERGY POLICY
Volume 61, Issue -, Pages 472-482

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.017

Keywords

Oil saving potential; Co-integration method; Monte Carlo simulation

Funding

  1. National Social Science Foundation of China [12ZD059]
  2. Ministry of Education [10GBJ013]
  3. National Natural Science Foundation of China [71203186]
  4. Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2010221051]
  5. National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China [71203187]

Ask authors/readers for more resources

China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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