Journal
ENERGY POLICY
Volume 60, Issue -, Pages 785-792Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.036
Keywords
CO2 emission allowances; Cost-of-carry model; Market efficiency
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In this paper, we study the relationship between futures and spot prices in the European carbon markets from the cost-of-carry hypothesis. The aim is to investigate the extent of efficiency market. The three main European markets (BlueNext, EEX and ECX) are analyzed during Phase II, covering the period from March 13, 2009 to January, 17, 2012. Futures contracts are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and interest rates for several maturities in the three CO2 markets. Results are similar when structural breaks are taken into account. According to individual and joint tests, the cost-of-carry model is rejected for all maturities and CO2 markets, implying that neither contract is priced according to the cost-of-carry model. The absence of the cost-of-carry relationship can be interpreted as an indicator of market inefficiency and may bring arbitrage opportunities in the CO2 market. (C) 2013. Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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