The influence of energy consumption of China on its real GDP from aggregated and disaggregated viewpoints

This paper investigated the causal relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels during the period of 1978-2009 by using a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) within a multivariate framework. The empirical results suggested the existence of a negative bi-directional Graoger causality running from aggregated energy consumption to real GDP. At disaggregated level of energy consumption, the results were complicated. For coal, empirical findings suggested that there was a negative hi-directional Granger causality running from coal consumption to real GDP. However, for oil and gas, empirical findings suggested a positive bidirectional Granger causality running from oil as well as gas consumption to real GDP. Though these results supported the feedback hypothesis, the negative relationship might be attributed to the growing economy production shifting towards less energy intensive sectors and excessive energy consumption in relatively unproductive sectors. The results indicated that policies with reducing aggregated energy consumption and promoting energy conservation may boost China's economic growth. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.