4.7 Article

An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

Journal

ENERGY POLICY
Volume 52, Issue -, Pages 288-296

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.021

Keywords

Renewable energy; Electricity scenarios; LEAP model

Funding

  1. Human Resources Development of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP)
  2. Korea government's Ministry of Knowledge Economy [20100092]

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This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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