Journal
ENERGY POLICY
Volume 43, Issue -, Pages 37-48Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.065
Keywords
Well-to-wheels; Energy use; GHG emissions
Funding
- U.S.-based Energy Foundation
- National Science Foundation of China [71003065, 20921140409]
- Ministry of Science and Technology of China [2010DFA72760-603]
- Ministry of Education of China [20100002120031]
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We project the well-to-wheels (WTW) and tank-to-wheels (TTW) fossil-energy use, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the road-transport sector in China up to year 2050 and evaluate the effects of various potential policy options with the fuel economy and environmental impacts (FEEI) model (http://www.feeimodel.org/). The policies evaluated include (1) vehicle fuel-consumption improvements, (2) dieselization, (3) vehicle electrification, and (4) fuel diversification, with plausible policy scenarios. Under the business-as-usual scenario, road transport in China would create 410-520 million metric tons (MMT) of oil-equivalent of TTW oil demand (three to four times the current level), 28-36 billion GJ of WTW energy demand, and 1900-2300 MMT of CO2-equivalent of WTW GHG emissions by 2050. The policies (in the same order as above) are projected to reduce the TTW oil demand by 35%, 10%, 29%, and 44%, and reduce WTW GHG emissions by 34%, 5%, 12%, and 13%, respectively, by 2050. This evaluation reveals that the fuel-consumption improvement policy could achieve greater benefit in reducing oil use, fossil-energy use, and GHG emissions. Implications of each policy option are discussed and the uncertainties associated with the policy scenarios are analyzed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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