A sustainable scenario for Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050 and its costs

The present research study used the quantitative approach to analyze the present and future situation of the Venezuelan power generation sector; to achieve that, the total energy generation costs and GHG emissions of four scenarios in 2050 were estimated and compared, considering two demand groups, high and low demand. For each demand scenario, two supply matrix were considered, a generation matrix based on the existing national power generation plans and trends (these scenarios were referred as BAU) and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Venezuela and without the use of either nuclear or CCS technologies, and these scenarios are referred as Sustainable Scenarios (SUS). In the first section, the present situation is presented, followed by an explanation of the applied methodology and the implemented tools. In the third and fourth sections the available recourses and the applied basic assumptions for the four of scenarios are presented and discussed, respectively, followed by the results. In this study it is shown that Venezuela has all the resources it needs to achieve sustainable development in the power generation sector. It is also proved that an energy efficiency improvement is the easiest path to reduce GHG emissions. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.