An investigation of the role of China's urban population on coal consumption

This paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population, real GDP, electricity production and coal consumption in China for the period 1971-2009. Using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econ. 66 (1995) 225), the results suggest that there is causality running from GDP to coal consumption. The variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period. We also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect China's GDP over time. Policy measures aimed at influencing GDP could ultimately affect coal consumption. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.