Article
Environmental Studies
Xu Gong, Keqin Guan, Liqing Chen, Tangyong Liu, Chengbo Fu
Summary: This paper constructs a five-variable Markov switching vector autoregressions (Markov switching VAR) model to study the impact of different oil shocks on oil prices, showing that the oil inventory and speculative demand have more significant effects on the oil price fluctuation. Multiple factors play a role in driving the oil price fluctuation and their intensity changes under different regimes.
Article
Economics
Daniele Valenti, Andrea Bastianin, Matteo Manera
Summary: We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive model of the US crude oil market that explains short-run crude oil price dynamics, including variations related with the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The model is identified with a Bayesian approach and incorporates the futures-spot price spread and US inventories to capture shocks and unexpected variations in the real price of crude oil. Including the futures-spot price spread is crucial for accounting for feedback effects from the financial to the physical market and for identifying the expectational shock.
Article
Business, Finance
Yong Jiang, Gang-Jin Wang, Chaoqun Ma, Xiaoguang Yang
Summary: The study finds asymmetrical responses of U.S. stock market returns to oil price shocks, which depend on credit conditions. Specifically, oil prices negatively affect stock market returns when credit conditions are normal, but the relationship is reversed in tight credit conditions.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Studies
Lu-Tao Zhao, Yue-Yue Xing, Qiu-Rong Zhao, Xue-Hui Chen
Summary: In recent years, international crude oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. Online investor sentiment can strengthen the correlation between oil price changes and external events in such extreme market conditions. Using a rolling-window structural vector autoregression method, this study investigates the dynamic impact of online investor sentiment on WTI crude oil prices before and after the pandemic, covering various aspects of price, supply, demand, etc., aiming to explore the fluctuation mechanism driven by sentiment and the price changes caused by public health events. The proposed aspect-level sentiment analysis approach effectively distinguishes and measures sentiment scores of different aspects of the oil market. The findings provide insights into the mechanisms through which investor sentiment influences crude oil prices, assisting policymakers and investors in mitigating extreme risks in the oil market.
Article
Agronomy
Hongyu Yang, Yuanxin Cao, Yuemeng Shi, Yuling Wu, Weixi Guo, Hui Fu, Youzhu Li
Summary: This study used vector autoregressive (VAR) and time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) models to explore the dynamic impacts of weather changes on vegetable price fluctuations, using pointed pepper, loofah, Chinese chives, and tomato as examples. The findings suggest that specific vegetable varieties are affected by specific weather factors. The study also found that the dynamic impacts of weather factors on vegetable price fluctuations have consistent characteristics at different time points.
Article
Economics
D. O. Olayungbo, Chisom Umechukwu
Summary: The study examines the impact of oil price shocks on the economies of four selected oil-exporting African countries. It finds significant asymmetric effects in Algeria and Egypt, while symmetric effects are observed in Gabon and Nigeria. The study concludes that positive oil price effects matter for Algeria and Egypt, but not for Gabon and Nigeria.
ECONOMIC CHANGE AND RESTRUCTURING
(2022)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Qingru Sun, Ze Wang, Nanfei Jia
Summary: This paper proposes a transmission model of oil price shocks to Chinese price levels and explores the direct and indirect impacts of crude oil price shocks on various Chinese price indices. The empirical findings suggest that consumer price index and the price index for means of agricultural production are indirectly affected by crude oil price fluctuations, and the export price index is the most significantly affected. Indirect influence cannot be ignored when analyzing the influence of crude oil price fluctuation on Chinese price level.
Article
Thermodynamics
Si Jingjian, Gao Xiangyun, Zhou Jinsheng, Wang Anjian, Sun Xiaotian, Zhao Yiran, Wei Hongyu
Summary: Recently, many scholars have been interested in the impact of oil price shocks on the energy stock market. This paper constructs a new VAR and PVAR research framework to investigate the role of investor attention in the process of oil price impact on the energy stock market from a micro perspective. The study finds that investor attention affects the process of oil prices impacting energy stock prices, but not all energy listed companies are affected. Investor attention plays a more significant role for listed energy companies with a wider range of businesses. Additionally, negative oil price shocks have a longer duration on energy stock prices because of increased investor attention to them.
Article
Economics
Michal Rubaszek, Karol Szafranek, Gazi Salah Uddin
Summary: This study examines the impact of structural shocks on the dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market, correctly estimating the short-term price elasticity of natural gas supply and demand. The results show that the price elasticity of supply is low, while the elasticity of demand is higher than the average estimate in the literature.
Article
Economics
Andre Harrison, Xiaochun Liu, Shamar L. Stewart
Summary: This paper examines the driving factors behind oil market volatility and correlation dynamics with volatility impulse response and correlation decomposition functions. It focuses on hypothesis testing for the observed diverging dynamics of oil market volatilities. By specifying a time-varying level-volatility transmission matrix, the study overcomes the limitation of uncorrelated disturbances in traditional structural models, and provides more accurate estimation of oil market dynamics. The results offer valuable insights for policymakers, firms, and investors, including the origins of diverging oil volatilities, the impact of supply and demand shocks on volatility, and the correlation between oil production and price.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Anwar Saeed Ahmed Qahtan, Helian Xu, AL-Barakani Abdo, Alnoah Abdulsalam
Summary: This study examines the asymmetric impact of energy consumption and oil price fluctuations on economic growth in MENA net oil-exporting and importing countries from 1990 to 2019 using a panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (PNARDL) model. The findings suggest that the effects of nonrenewable energy and oil price fluctuations on economic growth are nonlinear, with higher impacts observed in net oil-exporting countries. Policy recommendations should be tailored to the specific circumstances of each country.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Environmental Studies
Hui Su, Na Zhou, Qiaosheng Wu, Zhiwei Bi, Yuli Wang
Summary: Predictable global copper prices are crucial to the transition to a green economy. This paper examines the nonlinear characteristics between international copper futures prices and their drivers. The results indicate dynamic regime switching patterns in the fluctuations of international copper futures prices, with long-term stability determined by factors associated with demand and metal stocks. Strategic metals demand and financial factors are identified as important drivers. The study highlights the importance of monitoring fluctuations caused by these factors.
Article
Economics
Marek A. Dabrowski, Monika Papiez, Michal Rubaszek, Slawomir Smiech
Summary: This paper examines how the effects of oil market shocks on oil-exporting countries' economic activity and exchange rates are influenced by the stage of economic development and the scale of oil exports. The findings show that the responses to oil market shocks vary across countries and depend on the level of economic development, with emerging market economies having more prominent reactions.
Article
Economics
Tirimisiyu F. Oloko, Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Abdulfatai A. Adedeji, Noman Lakhani
Summary: The study finds that the inflation rate persistence of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries does not increase due to oil price shocks, suggesting that their monetary policies can accommodate oil price fluctuations. Failure to account for oil price asymmetry tends to exaggerate inflation persistence. This conclusion holds for different monetary policy frameworks and exchange rate regimes.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY
(2021)
Article
Economics
Maddalena Cavicchioli
Summary: In this paper, we accurately derive the regime-dependent impulse response functions for a Markov switching VAR model using matrix expressions, and analyze them by transforming the model into a state-space form.
Article
Economics
Marie-Louise Arlt, David Chassin, Claudio Rivetta, James Sweeney
Summary: This paper examines the impact of real-time pricing and load automation on residential distribution systems. The study finds that implementing real-time pricing can result in an aggregate welfare gain of 39 USD per customer and year. However, it also notes that RTP and load automation may significantly increase peak system load. Introducing a market-based demand management system can further enhance welfare gains and reduce grid investment.
Article
Economics
Javier Jorquera-Copier, Alvaro Lorca, Enzo Sauma, Stefan Lorenczik, Matias Negrete-Pincetic
Summary: As countries update their climate ambitions, low-carbon hydrogen production and use present opportunities for emissions reductions and economic development. A case study for Chile shows that integrating hydrogen and electricity networks can lower system costs and enhance renewable integration, but policy support is needed to address concerns related to water and land use.
Article
Economics
Dawit Guta, Hisham Zerriffi, Jill Baumgartner, Abhishek Jain, Sunil Mani, Darby Jack, Ellison Carter, Guofeng Shen, Jennifer Orgill-Meyer, Joshua Rosenthal, Katherine Dickinson, Rob Bailis, Yuta Masuda
Summary: Household solid fuel use is detrimental to health and the environment. The Indian government's PMUY subsidy has successfully promoted the adoption of LPG by millions of households. However, there is limited understanding of the decision-making process to reduce solid fuel use after transitioning to cleaner fuels. This study found that factors such as household wealth, social status, education level, and the prevalence of LPG use in the village are positively associated with LPG consumption and the discontinuation of solid fuel use. On the other hand, factors such as distance to LPG refill delivery, household size, and the PMUY subsidy are negatively associated with the share of LPG use.
Article
Economics
Nicolas Morell-Dameto, Jose Pablo Chaves-Avila, Tomas Gomez San Roman, Pablo Duenas-Martinez, Tim Schittekatte
Summary: This paper assesses the performance of differently implemented forward-looking network tariff designs and proposes an innovative coordination mechanism to increase predictability in a future with many flexible customers. The study reveals that if large shares of customers synchronize their responses to highly time-varying and locational-specific network charges, it can lead to unexpected reinforcements.
Article
Economics
Alexandra Gritz, Guntram Wolff
Summary: Russia's weaponization of gas supplies shook the energy security of Central and Eastern Europe in 2022. The region responded by increasing alternative energy supplies and developing new gas supply routes. Renewable energy, nuclear energy, and hydrogen play important roles in the long-term. Mitigating the impact of this shock requires the EU to prioritize the integrity of its energy market.
Article
Economics
Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, Marion Collewet, Matthew DiGiuseppe, Hendrik Vrijburg
Summary: Economic costs are a major political obstacle to investing in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. The method of financing plays a crucial role in determining public opposition to government green investments, with debt financing being less opposed than broad-based taxes. This study suggests that credit market tools, such as green bonds and debt for climate swaps, can be politically efficient in increasing support for green financing. Carbon taxes and wealth taxes are found to be the most preferred options.
Article
Economics
Kun Guo, Liyuan Luan, Xiaoli Cai, Dayong Zhang, Qiang Ji
Summary: This paper investigates China's energy trade stability using a survival analysis approach. It finds that the energy trade linkages between China and 153 other countries are complex and unstable, with short periods of trade with many countries. Geopolitically risky regions, such as the Middle East and Africa, have the lowest trade stability. Climate risks have significant effects on energy trade stability. The paper proposes several policy options to improve energy trade stability in China, with special attention to increasing global climate risks.
Article
Economics
Simona Bigerna, Piyush Choudhary, Nikunj Kumar Jain, Silvia Micheli, Paolo Polinori
Summary: This study estimates the willingness to pay of Indian urban consumers for a continuous supply of electricity using contingent valuation method. The findings show that the amount consumers are willing to pay depends on the duration of power outages, with households preferring shorter outages. Income and environmental attitude also positively influence higher willingness to pay. These insights can inform policymakers in designing more reliable and customer-centric energy generation and distribution models.
Article
Economics
Temilade Sesan, Unico Uduka, Lucy Baker, Okechukwu Ugwu, Ewah Eleri, Subhes Bhattacharyya
Summary: This study examines the impact of the regulatory framework on rural electrification and universal energy access goals in Nigeria's mini-grid sector. The findings suggest that while the current framework has fostered sector growth, additional measures are necessary to ensure equitable distribution of access among rural populations.
Article
Economics
Rui Shan, Noah Kittner
Summary: Energy storage is a cornerstone in decarbonization planning as it reduces operational costs and greenhouse gas emissions, while enhancing resilience and renewables integration. However, storage developers in different regions have varying economic and environmental considerations, thereby requiring policy intervention to achieve long-term emission reductions.
Article
Economics
Tung Durmaz, Sevil Acar, Simay Kizilkaya
Summary: This study investigates the phenomenon of strategic capacity withholding in the Turkish electricity market and its relationship with the capacity remuneration mechanism. The empirical results provide strong evidence of strategic capacity withholding and show that the capacity mechanism contributes to the duration of failures. The study offers important insights for policymakers, including the implementation of a random verification mechanism and restructuring of the capacity mechanism in Turkey.
Article
Economics
Tii N. Nchofoung
Summary: The study finds that oil price shocks have a negative impact on Africa's energy transition, particularly in rural areas and net crude oil exporting countries. However, oil price shocks cannot explain the urban-rural differences in clean energy access. Therefore, increasing investment in clean energy and technologies in rural areas is necessary to enhance the resilience of the energy sector to oil price shocks.
Article
Economics
Najia Saqib, Muhammad Usman, Ilhan Ozturk, Arshian Sharif
Summary: This study examines the impact of environmental technologies, financial growth, and energy use on ecological footprint and green growth. Environmental innovation and renewable energy deployment contribute to green growth, while financial expansion and non-renewable energy use have negative effects on the environment. The study also identifies causal relationships between different factors.
Article
Economics
Yessica C. Y. Chung, Noxolo Kunene, Hung-Hao Chang
Summary: The Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) is considered an innovative technology for building a green society. This study investigates the impact of REC purchases on stock return and volume in Taiwan between 2017 and 2021. The findings suggest that REC purchases have a positive effect on stock returns of manufacturing firms but not service firms. The frequency of REC purchases is also an important factor in the relationship between REC purchase and firm value. Additionally, the study reveals that public attention to environmental pollution plays a crucial role in positive stock returns and volume, while ESG disclosure is negatively associated with returns and volume.
Article
Economics
Seife Ayele, Wei Shen, Yacob Mulugetta, Tadesse Kuma Worako
Summary: This paper addresses the challenges of governing energy procurement from a mix of non-hydropower renewable energy sources supplied by independent producers. Building on political economy analysis and five case studies of independent producer projects from Ethiopia, it seeks to understand the root causes of the protracted delays and limited extent of procurement by independent producers. The key contestations lie in managing long term contracts, risk, uncertainty and in developing the institutional and human capacity to transition.