4.7 Article

Uncertainty analysis in building performance simulation for design support

Journal

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS
Volume 43, Issue 10, Pages 2798-2805

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.06.034

Keywords

Building performance simulation; Uncertainty analysis; Robustness analysis; Physical; Design and scenario uncertainties

Ask authors/readers for more resources

Building performance simulation (BPS) has the potential to provide relevant design information by indicating directions for design solutions. A major challenge in simulation tools is how to deal with difficulties through large variety of parameters and complexity of factors such as non-linearity, discreteness, and uncertainty. The purpose of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can be described as identifying uncertainties in input and output of a system or simulation tool [1-3]. In practice uncertainty and sensitivity analysis have many additional benefits including: (1) With the help of parameter screening it enables the simplification of a model [4]. (2) It allows the analysis of the robustness of a model [5]. (3) It makes aware of unexpected sensitivities that may lead to errors and/or wrong specifications (quality assurance) [6-10]. (4) By changing the input of the parameters and showing the effect on the outcome of a model, it provides a what-if analysis (decision support). [11]. In this paper a case study is performed based on an office building with respect to various building performance parameters. Uncertainty analysis (UA) is carried out and implications for the results considering energy consumption and thermal comfort are demonstrated and elaborated. The added value and usefulness of the integration of UA in BPS is shown. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Authors

I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.

Reviews

Primary Rating

4.7
Not enough ratings

Secondary Ratings

Novelty
-
Significance
-
Scientific rigor
-
Rate this paper

Recommended

Article Energy & Fuels

An energy paradigm transition framework from negative towards positive district energy sharing networks-Battery cycling aging, advanced battery management strategies, flexible vehicles-to-buildings interactions, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Yuekuan Zhou, Sunliang Cao, Jan L. M. Hensen

Summary: This study proposes technical solutions to promote resilient and smart energy systems, including novel energy management strategies and dynamic battery cycling aging models. The research results show that the energy paradigm transition has a significant impact on net present value and annual net DEC, with battery cost being more sensitive to the energy paradigm.

APPLIED ENERGY (2021)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Investigating energy performance of large-scale seasonal storage in the district heating system of chifeng city: Measurements and model-based analysis of operation strategies

Luyi Xu, Fang Guo, Pieter-Jan Hoes, Xudong Yang, Jan L. M. Hensen

Summary: This paper presents a modeling and simulation method to support the energy performance assessment and operation strategy investigation of borehole thermal energy storage in the Chifeng district heating system. Through a living laboratory in Chifeng, China, with a integrated system, the research adopts Modelica models to evaluate the system and found that the time-scheduled combined operation strategy is more beneficial for reducing CO2 emissions.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2021)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Investigating the energy flexibility of Dutch office buildings on single building level and building cluster level

Christina Papachristou, Pieter-Jan Hoes, M. G. L. C. Loomans, T. A. J. van Goch, J. L. M. Hensen

Summary: Demand Response is used to reduce the mismatch between renewable energy generation and electricity demand. Buildings can provide energy flexibility through their thermal mass, with factors such as thermal capacity and window to wall ratio having a significant impact. The study shows that in certain cases, the potential energy shiftable by the thermal mass of a building can be comparable to commercial battery capacity.

JOURNAL OF BUILDING ENGINEERING (2021)

Article Energy & Fuels

Investigating the energy saving potential of thermochromic coatings on building envelopes

Afaq A. Butt, Samuel B. de Vries, Roel C. G. M. Loonen, Jan L. M. Hensen, Anthonie Stuiver, Jonathan E. J. van den Ham, Bart S. J. F. Erich

Summary: The optimal TC coating properties vary depending on climate and building types. TC coatings with high switching temperatures are more energy efficient in scenarios with high heating demands, while TC coatings with low switching temperatures perform better in scenarios with high cooling demands.

APPLIED ENERGY (2021)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Calculating solar irradiance without shading geometry: a point cloud-based method

A. Bognar, R. C. G. M. Loonen, J. L. M. Hensen

Summary: This paper introduces a new modeling method using Digital Surface Model point clouds for simulating solar irradiance, simplifying the simulation workflow and improving accuracy in assessing photovoltaic yield and solar gains of buildings. Two case studies demonstrate that ignoring shading from surroundings can lead to various prediction errors.

JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION (2021)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Future-Proof Energy-Retrofit strategy for an existing Dutch neighbourhood

Soheil Alavirad, Saleh Mohammadi, Pieter-Jan Hoes, Luyi Xu, Jan L. M. Hensen

Summary: In the EU, buildings account for about 40% of the final energy consumption, with 65% of that being used for space heating. By reducing the demand for space heating, significant energy savings can be achieved. In the Netherlands, there are approximately 6 million residential buildings constructed before 2005 that need to reduce their energy demand to meet nZEB requirements. The main challenge in large-scale energy retrofit of buildings is classifying housing types based on the severity of demand reduction.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2022)

Article Energy & Fuels

Performance variability and implications for yield prediction of rooftop PV systems - Analysis of 246 identical systems

B. Meng, R. C. G. M. Loonen, J. L. M. Hensen

Summary: This paper analyzes long-term monitoring data of 246 identical rooftop PV systems and investigates the mechanism of PV performance variations. The study finds that PV performance variability is significant in the real built environment, not only between different locations but also between peer systems in the same neighborhood. To mitigate financial risks and reduce PV yield prediction error, it is recommended to commission and monitor PV systems in the field for at least one month with the largest range of solar elevation.

APPLIED ENERGY (2022)

Review Construction & Building Technology

A multi-layered strategy for COVID-19 infection prophylaxis in schools: A review of the evidence for masks, distancing, and ventilation

Robert S. McLeod, Christina J. Hopfe, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Heinz-Joern Moriske, Ulrich Poeschl, Tunga Salthammer, Joachim Curtius, Frank Helleis, Jennifer Niessner, Caroline Herr, Thomas Klimach, Martin Seipp, Thomas Steffens, Christian Witt, Stefan N. Willich

Summary: Evidence shows that implementing layered prevention strategies and appropriate measures can greatly reduce the risk of COVID-19 transmission in classroom teaching. Wearing high-quality masks and regular testing are among the most important measures, and effective ventilation systems can significantly reduce infection risks in classrooms.

INDOOR AIR (2022)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Impacts of surface model generation approaches on raytracing-based solar potential estimation in urban areas

B. Tian, R. C. G. M. Loonen, A. Bognar, J. L. M. Hensen

Summary: This paper compares the impacts of four different reconstruction algorithms on the performance of raytracing simulations, and finds that the reconstructed models consistently underestimate shading influence. Explicit algorithms perform better with less embedded error, and diffuse irradiance contributes more to the overall error than direct components. The error magnitude is also affected by solar elevation and shading geometry types.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2022)

Article Construction & Building Technology

A novel approach to account for shape-morphing and kinetic shading systems in building energy performance simulations

Francesco Carlucci, Roel C. G. M. Loonen, Francesco Fiorito, Jan L. M. Hensen

Summary: This study proposes an innovative approach to analyze the energy behavior of complex kinetic shading systems. It develops and validates a tool based on Python and EnergyPlus that can consider the continuous nature of energy simulation and analyze complex kinetic systems. The algorithm provides a comparison sheet to evaluate the performance of the system by providing an EnergyPlus model and a model of the shading configurations.

JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION (2023)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Multi-criterial performance-based climatic zoning of Brazil supported by local experts

Angelica Walsh, Daniel Costola, Jan L. M. Hensen, Lucila Chebel Labaki

Summary: This paper presents the first application of performance-based zoning to Brazil, using an open-source toolbox to revise the Brazilian climatic zoning standard. The study simulates and analyzes 100 variants of a detached dwelling for 298 locations in terms of energy demand, thermal comfort, and mould growth risk. The proposed zoning method, incorporating expert insights, outperforms the current Brazilian and degree-day zones.

BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT (2023)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Combining point cloud and surface methods for modeling partial shading impacts of trees on urban solar irradiance

B. Tian, R. C. G. M. Loonen, J. L. M. Hensen

Summary: This paper presents a novel method for comprehensive solar irradiance assessment that considers the dynamic partial shading impacts from trees. The method, which takes urban point clouds as input, shows significant reduction in simulation errors compared to alternative approaches, while limiting the required input data. The primary source of uncertainty stems from mismatches between tree morphology in the fusion model and reality.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2023)

Article Energy & Fuels

A design optimization method for solar-driven thermochemical storage systems based on building performance simulation

Shuwei Wang, Pieter-Jan Hoes, Jan L. M. Hensen, Olaf C. G. Adan, Pim A. J. Donkers

Summary: With the increasing share of renewable energy in total energy consumption, the temporal mismatch between energy supply and demand in buildings is becoming a challenge. Thermochemical heat storage, with its considerable energy density, acceptable cost, and negligible heat loss, is a promising alternative to common heat storage solutions in building applications. This study proposes a method that combines modeling and simulation to assess the potential impact and benefit of a thermochemical heat storage system integrated into a building, using a data-driven surrogate model and a building performance simulation engine. The results from a case study show that the heat battery can effectively reduce electricity consumption for heating a detached house without sacrificing thermal comfort, and that a small-scale heat battery exhibits efficient usage of the designed storage capacity.

JOURNAL OF ENERGY STORAGE (2023)

Article Chemistry, Multidisciplinary

Producing cold from heat with aluminum carboxylate-based metal-organic frameworks

Effrosyni Gkaniatsou, Chaoben Chen, Frederic S. Cui, Xiaowei Zhu, Paul Sapin, Farid Nouar, Cedric Boissiere, Christos N. Markides, Jan Hensen, Christian Serre

Summary: As worldwide cooling energy demands continue to rise, thermally driven cooling technology provides an alternative solution to electric heat pumps. By utilizing water-stable microporous aluminum-carboxylate-based metal-organic frameworks (Al-MOFs) as sorbents, high thermal efficiency and specific cooling power can be achieved in typical cooling scenarios.

CELL REPORTS PHYSICAL SCIENCE (2022)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Design Optimisation of Fixed and Adaptive Shading Devices on Four Facade Orientations of a High-Rise Office Building in the Tropics

Rizki A. Mangkuto, Mochamad Donny Koerniawan, Sri Rahma Apriliyanthi, Irma Handayani Lubis, Atthaillah, Jan L. M. Hensen, Beta Paramita

Summary: This study aims to explore the optimization of shading devices in high-rise buildings in tropical regions and evaluate the effectiveness of fixed and adaptive design options using computational modeling and simulation. The results show that the fixed design option can achieve the daylight targets on the north and south facades, while the east and west facades require the implementation of adaptive design options.

BUILDINGS (2022)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Cool roof strategies for urban thermal resilience to extreme heatwaves in tropical cities

Samiran Khorat, Debashish Das, Rupali Khatun, Sk Mohammad Aziz, Prashant Anand, Ansar Khan, Mattheos Santamouris, Dev Niyogi

Summary: Cool roofs can effectively mitigate heatwave-induced excess heat and enhance thermal comfort in urban areas. Implementing cool roofs can significantly improve urban meteorology and thermal comfort, reducing energy flux and heat stress.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2024)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Estimating omnidirectional urban vertical wind speed with direction-dependent building morphologies

Qi Li, Jiayu Chen, Xiaowei Luo

Summary: This study focuses on the vertical wind conditions as a main external factor that limits the energy assessment of high-rise buildings in urban areas. Traditional tools for energy assessment of buildings use a universal vertical wind profile estimation, without taking into account the unique wind speed in each direction induced by the various shapes and configurations of buildings in cities. To address this limitation, the study developed an omnidirectional urban vertical wind speed estimation method using direction-dependent building morphologies and machine learning algorithms.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2024)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Towards a blockchain and machine learning-based framework for decentralised energy management

Xiaojun Luo, Lamine Mahdjoubi

Summary: This paper presents an integrated blockchain and machine learning-based energy management framework for multiple forms of energy allocation and transmission among multiple domestic buildings. Machine learning is used to predict energy generation and consumption patterns, and the proposed framework establishes optimal and automated energy allocation through peer-to-peer energy transactions. The approach contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and enhances environmental sustainability.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2024)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Dual-layer optimization design method for collaborative benefits of renewable energy systems in building clusters: Case study of campus buildings

Ying Yu, Yuanwei Xiao, Jinshuai Chou, Xingyu Wang, Liu Yang

Summary: This study proposes a dual-layer optimization design method to maximize the energy sharing potential, enhance collaborative benefits, and reduce the storage capacity of building clusters. Case studies show that the proposed design significantly improves the performance of building clusters, reduces energy storage capacity, and shortens the payback period.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2024)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Model predictive control of distributed energy resources in residential buildings considering forecast uncertainties

Felix Langner, Weimin Wang, Moritz Frahm, Veit Hagenmeyer

Summary: This paper compares two main approaches to consider uncertainties in model predictive control (MPC) for buildings: robust and stochastic MPC. The results show that compared to a deterministic MPC, the robust MPC increases the electricity cost while providing complete temperature constraint satisfaction, while the stochastic MPC slightly increases the electricity cost but fulfills the thermal comfort requirements.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2024)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Comprehensive assessment of double skin façades: A mathematical model for evaluating influence of KL ratio on electrical and thermal performances, and indoor conditions

Somil Yadav, Caroline Hachem-Vermette

Summary: This study proposes a mathematical model to evaluate the performance of a Double Skin Facade (DSF) system and its impact on indoor conditions. The model considers various design parameters and analyzes their effects on the system's electrical output and room temperature.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2024)

Article Construction & Building Technology

Improving building resilience in the face of future climate uncertainty: A comprehensive framework for enhancing building life cycle performance

Ruijun Chen, Holly Samuelson, Yukai Zou, Xianghan Zheng, Yifan Cao

Summary: This research introduces an innovative resilient design framework that optimizes building performance by considering a holistic life cycle perspective and accounting for climate projection uncertainties. The study finds that future climate scenarios significantly impact building life cycle performance, with wall U-value, windows U-value, and wall density being major factors. By using ensemble learning and optimization algorithms, predictions for carbon emissions, cost, and indoor discomfort hours can be made, and the best resilient design scheme can be selected. Applying this framework leads to significant improvements in building life cycle performance.

ENERGY AND BUILDINGS (2024)