4.7 Article

Discussion of Multicyclic Hubbert Modeling as a Method for Forecasting Future Petroleum Production

Journal

ENERGY & FUELS
Volume 25, Issue 4, Pages 1578-1584

Publisher

AMER CHEMICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1021/ef1012648

Keywords

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Funding

  1. U.S. Department of Energy [USDOE-DE-SC002171]

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Multicyclic Hubbert analysis of resource. Production, especially as it relates to forecasting future Petroleum production, has received significant traction in scientific and public circles. Although in some cases this technique can be a valuable tool for understanding resource production, its usefulness as a predictor has it times been overstated. The effects of modeling parameters, such as the number of Hubbert cycles applied, can significantly limit the validity of the results obtained. Examples of multicyclic Hubbert analyses show that while this approach can be useful in certain circumstances, there are a number of implicit assumptions underlying the method that need to be understood when assessing the validity of forecasts derived from this approach.

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