Application of an Urban Fire Simulation Model

Computer models that simulate post-earthquake urban fires can be useful for improving understanding of the phenomenon, estimating risk, evaluating the relative effectiveness of possible risk reduction measures, and identifying areas for further study. A model's usefulness, however, depends on its credibility, which can be difficult to establish. In this paper, we describe two efforts to build the credibility of the recently developed urban fire simulation (UPS) model-comparing it to the widely used Hamada model and applying it to the 2007 Grass Valley, CA fire. The model produces results that are similar in character and magnitude to those from the Hamada model for simplified conditions, and in the Grass Valley case, that compare well to observations in terms of timing, spatial pattern, and modes of spread. The comparisons also highlight the challenges in validation of urban fire models and suggest some areas for future study.