Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research

Expert Status and Performance

(2011) Mark A. Burgman et al.   PLoS One

Long-term dynamics of bird diversity in forest and suburb: decay, turnover or homogenization?

(2010) Carla P. Catterall et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Conservation biogeography - foundations, concepts and challenges

(2010) David M. Richardson et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Freshwater fish introductions in mediterranean-climate regions: are there commonalities in the conservation problem?

(2010) S. M. Marr et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models

(2010) Petra M. Kuhnert et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Getting started with meta-analysis

(2010) Freya Harrison   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Ecology and management of alien plant invasions in South African fynbos: Accommodating key complexities in objective decision making

(2009) Núria Roura-Pascual et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Range-edge effects promote clonal growth in peripheral populations of the one-sided wintergreen Orthilia secunda

(2009) Gemma E. Beatty et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Incorporating between-expert uncertainty into state-and-transition simulation models for forest restoration

(2009) Christina A. Czembor et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Future declines of the binational Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: the importance of environmental and cultural change

(2009) John D Rothlisberger et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Can managers inform models? Integrating local knowledge into models of red deer habitat use

(2009) R. J. Irvine et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

(2009) Justine V. Murray et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts

(2009) Andrew Speirs-Bridge et al.   RISK ANALYSIS

Expert opinion as a tool for quantifying bird tolerance to human disturbance

(2008) D. Philip Whitfield et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Incorporating habitat use in models of fauna fatalities on roads

(2008) Erin Roger et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change

(2008) Saffron J. O’Neill et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes

(2007) Roger M. Cooke et al.   RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY