Journal
DIABETES & VASCULAR DISEASE RESEARCH
Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 59-67Publisher
SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD
DOI: 10.1177/1479164111424762
Keywords
Biomarkers; Diabetes Risk Score; incident diabetes; risk assessment; type 2 diabetes mellitus
Funding
- Sigrid Juselius Foundation
- Folkhalsan Foundation
- Finnish Diabetes Research Association
- Nordic Centre of Excellence in Disease Genetics
- Swedish Research Council
- Danish Medical Research Council
- Danish Centre for Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment
- Novo Nordisk
- Copenhagen County
- Danish Heart Foundation
- Danish Pharmaceutical Association
- Augustinus Foundation
- Ib Henriksen Foundation
- Becket Foundation
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Purpose: To assess performance of a biomarker-based score that predicts the five-year risk of diabetes (Diabetes Risk Score, DRS) in an independent cohort that included 15-year follow-up. Method: DRS was developed on the Inter99 cohort, and validated on the Botnia cohort. Performance was benchmarked against other risk-assessment tools comparing calibration, time to event analysis, and net reclassification. Results: The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.84 for the Inter99 cohort and 0.78 for the Botnia cohort. In the Botnia cohort, DRS provided better discrimination than fasting plasma glucose (FPG), homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, oral glucose tolerance test or risk scores derived from Framingham or San Antonio Study cohorts. Overall reclassification with DRS was significantly better than using FPG and glucose tolerance status (p < 0.0001). In time to event analysis, rates of conversion to diabetes in low, moderate, and high DRS groups were significantly different (p < 0.001). Conclusion: This study validates DRS performance in an independent population, and provides a more accurate assessment of T2DM risk than other methods.
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