Cost-effectiveness of screening for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

The effectiveness of screening and treatment of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) remains undefined. Our aim was to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of screening for recurrent HCC after LT. We constructed a Markov model of the natural history after LT for HCC. We superimposed screening with computed tomography, alpha-fetoprotein, and chest X-ray every six months for 1-5 yr after LT, with resection for treatable recurrence. Screening only those whose explant pathology exceeded Milan Criteria (MC) for two yr cost $138 000/life-yr gained, and the incremental cost of screening all patients was $340 000/life-yr gained. Screening for longer than two yr incurred progressively higher incremental costs/life-yr gained. The most critical variable in sensitivity analyses was the survival benefit of finding a resectable recurrence. With the most favorable assumptions for a two-yr screening duration, screening those whose explant pathology exceeded MC cost $91 000/life-yr gained. In conclusion, screening for HCC recurrence after LT would probably yield most of its benefit in the first two yr, but at a relatively high cost/life-yr gained. Screening for two yr in only those whose explant pathology exceeds MC may be relatively cost-effective depending on the survival benefit of resection.