Seabird diet predicts following-season commercial catch of Gulf of California Pacific Sardine and Northern Anchovy

The highly productive Gulf of California exhibits high biodiversity and an abundance of small pelagic, schooling fishes, important both to the ecosystem and to fisheries. These fishes show wide fluctuations in abundance due to oceanographic-atmospheric phenomena such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation, constituting a problem for effective fisheries management. In this work we propose several parameters in the diet of three seabird species as useful predictors of the eventual commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) in the Midriff Island Region of the Gulf of California. We found that seabirds are sensitive to fluctuations in the abundances of these fishes, their proportions in the diet becoming suitable predictors of future commercial CPUE. The precision of our prediction is high because the birds feed on pre-recruit fish, and the time between the sampling of the diets and the initiation of the fishing season is short, minimizing stochastic effects on recruitment and subsequent abundance due to environmental fluctuations. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.