Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Aissatou Faye, Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola
Summary: The study evaluated the performance of sixteen CMIP6 models in simulating extreme precipitation indices over West Africa, finding that the models reasonably reproduced the spatial patterns of the indices but exhibited differences between Sahel and Guinea coast subregions. Overall, the models overestimated consecutive wet days and heavy precipitation, with the ensemble mean performing better in capturing mean distributions of the extreme precipitation indices compared to individual models and gridded observations.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Felipe Jeferson de Medeiros, Cristiano Prestrelo de Oliveira, Alvaro Avila-Diaz
Summary: This study analyzes the performance of 40 Earth System Models from CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 in simulating extreme precipitation climate indices over Brazil. The results show that the models have difficulty in simulating observed trends, but climate projections indicate a consensus signal of more severe, frequent, and long-lasting extreme precipitation events in all Brazilian regions.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola, Victor Ongoma, Gabriel J. Kooperman
Summary: This study evaluated the ability of CMIP6 models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes in Eastern Africa. The results showed that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes, with consistent biases across individual models.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Maria Leidinice da Silva, Cristiano Prestrelo de Oliveira, Claudio Moises Santos e Silva, Joao Medeiros de Araujo
Summary: In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events induced by global warming have significantly increased, impacting society and ecosystems. This study evaluated the performance of two climate models in simulating and projecting extreme climate indices over tropical South America. The results showed that the models have strengths and weaknesses, but overall provide important insights into the potential impacts of climate change on regional planning and development.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Istiak Ahmed, Sheikh Ishtiaque, Taslima Zahan, Md Saif Uddin Rashed, Ranjit Sen, Md Faruque Hossain, Shyamal Brahma, Imrul Mosaddek Ahmed, M. Akhtar Hossain, Mohammad Akkas Ali, Abu Hena Sorwar Jahan, Sheikh Imtiaz, Quamrun Naher, Towhidi Almas Mujahidi, Suman Biswas, Md Iqbal Haque
Summary: This research analyzed data from 26 meteorological stations in Bangladesh between 1981 and 2018 to study the long-term trends and shifting behaviors associated with the country's record-breaking high temperatures. The findings show an increasing trend in warm spell duration, particularly in coastal regions. The length of warm spells has become longer since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Diurnal temperatures show little fluctuation but are gradually decreasing. The study suggests a decrease in the Cold Spell Duration Indicator (CSDI), indicating a long, cold winter ahead, and an annual increase in the Warm Spell Duration Indicator (WSDI), suggesting an extremely hot summer. An increasing trend in indicators of how long hot weather lasts indicates an increase in extreme weather events across the country, especially along the coasts.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Micah Lourdes Felix, Young-kyu Kim, Mikyoung Choi, Joo-Cheol Kim, Xuan Khanh Do, Thu Hien Nguyen, Kwansue Jung
Summary: This study analyzed the recent effects of climate change in the upper Geum River basin in South Korea by examining 17 extreme climate indices based on 33 years of daily precipitation and temperature data. The results indicate an overall increase in temperature intensity, decreased cold duration, increased heat duration, intensified precipitation, prolonged summer season, and shifts in precipitation patterns. These findings can be used to enhance watershed management strategies in the area.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ivar Kolstad, Azreen Karim, Paeivi Lujala, Arne Wiig
Summary: In settings where complex social decisions are made, information is often aggregated into indices to facilitate decision making. This paper presents a randomized experiment on the use of an index designed to inform migrant resettlement decisions. Results show that the resettlement index is used by the respondents, and mechanism analyses suggest this is due to perceptions of improved benefits to costs from using the index to make decisions.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Soledad Collazo, Mariana Barrucand, Matilde Rusticucci
Summary: The consequences of climate change have led to noticeable changes in extreme events worldwide. This study evaluates the ability of 33 CMIP6 models to simulate the observed trends of four extreme temperature indices in South America. The results show that the models struggle to accurately simulate temperature trends, especially for cold days.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Triambak Baghel, Mukand S. Babel, Sangam Shrestha, Krishna R. Salin, Salvatore G. P. Virdis, Victor R. Shinde
Summary: This study proposes a methodological framework to evaluate and rank climate models based on extreme climate indices. The developed framework is generic and can provide specific information on best-performing models for particular sectors.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yimin Zhao, Cheng Qian, Wenjun Zhang, Dong He, Yajie Qi
Summary: This study projected the changes in extreme temperature in Eurasia using CMIP6 models, finding that TXn, TNn, SU, and TR show increasing trends while FD shows a decreasing trend, with the strongest responses in high latitudes. If global warming is controlled within 2.0 degrees Celsius, the risk of extreme temperature change in Eurasia will be greatly reduced.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nagireddy Masthan Reddy, Subbarayan Saravanan
Summary: This study compared 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data to investigate extreme precipitation indices. The results showed that most datasets performed well for the consecutive wet days (CWD), heavy precipitation > 10 mm (R10MM), very heavy precipitation > 20 mm (R20MM), and precipitation > 2.5 mm (RR2.5) indices. The top 5 performing models, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, MRI-ESM2-0, GFDL-ESM4, and MIROC6, were ensembled projected for future periods under different scenarios. The future extreme precipitation indices can be used by flood modelers and hydrologists for watershed management.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Water Resources
Lia Pervin, Sabbir Mostafa Khan
Summary: This study evaluated the variability and trends of climate extremes using data from Chattogram station and CORDEX, showing significant increase in warm days and nights, and decrease in cold days and nights. There was a slight increase in maximum rainfall, with average annual precipitation increasing by 6%. The region experienced more heavy rainfall in the monsoon but also increased water stress in the dry season, highlighting the need for proper address of climate change effects on local hydrology for sustainable development.
JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Tshering Lhamo, Gang Chen, Singay Dorji, Tayba Buddha Tamang, Xiaofeng Wang, Pingnan Zhang
Summary: With climate change, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense. Bhutan, as a developing country, faces immense socio-economic damages and difficult recovery due to these changes. Moreover, changing precipitation patterns have impacts on land productivity and water availability.
Article
Water Resources
Alexis Kirsten Cooley, Heejun Chang
Summary: This study examines how temporal resolution affects trend detection in precipitation patterns in Portland, Oregon. By using climate indices and Mann-Kendall monotonic testing, the researchers found that annual indices suggest an intensifying hydrologic cycle in the future, while monthly summaries can reveal more apparent indicators of this trend in historical records.
JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Sanaz Moghim, Ali Takallou
Summary: This study uses different schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate heavy rainfall events and Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh. The results show that the WRF model can accurately predict the cyclone track, intensity, and landfall position. Additionally, a probabilistic framework and proper indices based on distributions are used to evaluate hazards and uncertainties.
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
(2023)
Article
Water Resources
Shammi Haque, Md Mostafa Ali, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Jamal Uddin Khan
Summary: This study focuses on assessing the future sediment load and flow in the Brahmaputra River Basin using the HEC-HMS model. The research finds that there is higher uncertainty in predicting sediment load in different seasons, with lower contribution from pre-monsoon season, but the mean annual sediment load is expected to significantly increase in the future.
JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sara Nowreen, Imran Hossain Newton, Rashed Uz Zzaman, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, G. M. Tarekul Islam, Md. Saiful Alam
Summary: This study delineated potential groundwater abstraction zones in the Northwest region of Bangladesh by assessing potential recharge and available recharge. The results showed that the Teesta river floodplain is the main potential zone, while the Barind Tract area has the lowest groundwater prospect.
ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Imran Hossain Newton, G. M. Tarekul Islam, Akm Saiful Islam, Sadmina Razzaque, Sujit Kumar Bala
Summary: This study investigated the possibility of using satellite data for reliable assessment of ET0 in the Southwest region of Bangladesh. The calibrated HS method was found to provide the most accurate results compared to other methods, suitable for ET0 assessment under conditions of limited data availability.
ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Rashed Uz Zzaman, Sara Nowreen, Maruf Billah, Akm Saiful Islam
Summary: This study evaluated 12 hydro-geomorphological factors to create flood hazard maps, with the ANP model showing high accuracy under 1-day maximum rainfall conditions and the hazard map under 100-year return periods indicating a large population and infrastructure at high flood risk.
JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
(2021)
Article
Water Resources
Binata Roy, Md Sabbir Mostafa Khan, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Khaled Mohammed
Summary: The study shows an increasing trend in flood depth, duration, and area from the early to the end of the century for both low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) climate scenarios. The difference between the two scenarios is minimal from the early to mid-century, but becomes very pronounced in the 2080s. Using an equal weightage approach for depth-duration area provides better hazard results.
JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Musammat Shahinara Begum, Sujit Kumar Bala, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Debjit Roy
Summary: Implementing agriculture on urban rooftops can effectively improve urban microclimates, reduce temperatures, and save energy. Moreover, urban rooftop agriculture has high environmental and economic value, contributing to a more sustainable urban development.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Beth Tellman, Upmanu Lall, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Md Ariffuzaman Bhuyan
Summary: This article explores novel approaches to using flooding index as a tool for parametric insurance products targeting regional governments, utilizing satellite remote sensing inundation extent as a proxy for flood impact. The authors consider alternative bounded distributions to estimate return periods and quantify uncertainty using a bootstrap sampling procedure. Through examining case studies in Bangladesh and Argentina, the study demonstrates how a parametric insurance policy based on fractional flooded area can be priced accounting for uncertainty in small sample estimation.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Anne Gaedeke, Michel Wortmann, Christoph Menz, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Muhammad Masood, Valentina Krysanova, Stefan Lange, Fred Fokko Hattermann
Summary: This study examines flood projections in the highly populated delta of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers, and finds that flood intensity is likely to increase due to climate change. The results highlight the urgent need for climate mitigation policies to reduce the impact of peak flows and minimize adverse socioeconomic consequences and adaptation costs. It also emphasizes the importance of strengthening climate resilience and achieving sustainable development through enhanced cooperation and coordination between adaptation, mitigation, and transboundary efforts.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Alex C. Ruane, Robert Vautard, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jana Sillmann, Erika Coppola, Nigel Arnell, Faye Abigail Cruz, Suraje Dessai, Carley E. Iles, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Richard G. Jones, Mohammad Rahimi, Daniel Ruiz Carrascal, Sonia Seneviratne, Jerome Servonnat, Anna A. Sorensson, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, Claudia Tebaldi, Wen Wang, Rashyd Zaaboul
Summary: The climate science and applications communities require a comprehensive concept to assess physical climate conditions relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. The CID approach provides a framework to evaluate the effects of different CIDs on societal and ecological elements, supporting adaptation planning and risk management.
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Md. Enayet Chowdhury, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Matthijs Lemans, Mark Hegnauer, Ashfaqur Rahaman Sajib, Nahruma Mehzabeen Pieu, Mohan Kumar Das, Nur Shadia, Akramul Haque, Binata Roy, Maruf Billah, Faruque Abdullah, Wasif Bin Mamoon, Shadman Kaiser, Sujit Kumar Bala, G. M. Tarekul Islam, Gopal Chandra Sarker, Sadequr Rahman, Arifuzzaman Bhuyan
Summary: The northeast region of Bangladesh is highly prone to flash floods, which cause damage to the only crop in that region, boro rice. To address this issue, an efficient and real-time flash flood forecasting system using an open-source platform called Delft-FEWS has been developed, based on inter-dependent meteorological, hydrologic, and hydrodynamic models. The system has been successfully calibrated, validated, and assessed during the flash flood seasons in 2010-12, 2013-15, and 2021.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Maruf Billah, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Wasif Bin Mamoon, Mohammad Rezaur Rahman
Summary: Devastating flood events in northeast Bangladesh are a regular occurrence and last for an abnormally long time. A methodology combining Optical and Radar Sentinel products was proposed for flood monitoring and damage assessment. The study area of Gowainghat in Bangladesh, prone to monsoons and flash floods, was selected. The random forest classifier showed better accuracy in land cover mapping and the study revealed the extent of agricultural land affected by floods.
REMOTE SENSING APPLICATIONS-SOCIETY AND ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Mitchell Thomas, Elizabeth Tellman, Daniel E. Osgood, Ben DeVries, Akm Saiful Islam, Michael S. Steckler, Maxwell Goodman, Maruf Billah
Summary: In this study, we aim to strengthen the use of satellite data for flood index insurance by proposing a set of criteria for assessing algorithm performance and providing a framework for remote sensing application validation in data-poor environments. The results show that the adapted Sentinel-1 algorithm significantly outperforms previous algorithms on the validation criteria. The proposed validation criteria can be used to develop and validate better remote sensing products for index insurance and other flood applications in places with inadequate ground truth data.
IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Kerry Emanuel, Yann Krien, Laurent Testut, A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Summary: Storm-surge-induced coastal inundation poses a significant threat to the Bengal delta region, but understanding the risk has been hindered by hydrodynamics and observational constraints. By generating and analyzing a storm surge database, we identified diverse water level extremes with clear regional patterns. We also found that about 10% of the coastal population is at risk of 50-year return period inundation.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Aurelia Bernard, Nathalie Long, Melanie Becker, Jamal Khan, Sylvie Fanchette
Summary: This article reviews the vulnerability of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding by introducing a new metric called socio-spatial vulnerability index (SSVI). The study identifies Shariatpur, Chandpur, and Barisal districts as the most vulnerable areas due to high population density, exposure to inundation hazards, and various vulnerability factors. The delta's mouth is also identified as a highly vulnerable area to cyclonic flooding.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Xavier Bertin, Laurent Testut, Yann Krien, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Marc Pezerat, Sazzad Hossain
Summary: This study presents a proof of concept of a physically consistent and computationally efficient storm surge forecasting system and utilizes a state-of-the-art numerical modeling system to real-time forecast the recent Supercyclone Amphan in the Bay of Bengal. The research affirms the existence of key ingredients for efficient real-time surge and inundation forecasting in the Bengal delta shorelines and other cyclone-prone regions, demonstrating the maturity of the framework for operational implementation.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2021)
