Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Pieter de Jong, Tarssio B. Barreto, Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Karla P. Oliveira-Esquerre, Asher Kiperstok, Ednildo Andrade Torres
Summary: This study estimates the impact of climate change on the hydroelectric potential of various basins across South America, with predictions showing significant declines in streamflow for the Sao Francisco River, Tocantins River, and Parnaiba River in the coming 3 decades. Additionally, there is a possibility that water demand from the Sao Francisco River could exceed available streamflow.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Matilde Rusticucci, Natalia Zazulie
Summary: The analysis of temperature extreme indices in southern South America showed that the largest positive trends were observed in the tropical nights index, with a clear anthropogenic signal in the subtropical and Andes regions. Significant changes in Patagonia were attributed to anthropogenic forcing, while projected changes for the 21st century are consistent with a warming climate, particularly in warm nights indices.
ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
M. E. Olmo, R. Balmaceda-Huarte, M. L. Bettolli
Summary: This study focuses on the construction of an unprecedented multi-model ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for daily precipitation. The results show that statistical downscaling adds value in representing the main features of daily precipitation and can predict future changes in precipitation. Furthermore, the statistical downscaling projections show consistent agreement with the dynamical downscaling results in terms of change direction but have differences in intensity.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Brian Odhiambo Ayugi, Eun-Sung Chung, Huanhuan Zhu, Obed M. Ogega, Hassen Babousmail, Victor Ongoma
Summary: If effective mitigation measures are not taken, ongoing global warming will continue throughout the century. This is associated with the occurrence of extreme climate events in Africa. Using model data from 24 CMIP6 modeling centers, this study investigates future changes in extreme climate events over Africa under different global warming levels. The results show that additional warming amplifies the impact of climate extremes, stressing the need for ambitious climate change mitigation measures to limit global warming.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
David B. Bonan, Flavio Lehner, Marika M. Holland
Summary: Improved understanding of the sources of uncertainty in Arctic sea ice projections is crucial for assessing the impacts of changing Arctic environment. This study finds that internal variability, model structure, and emissions scenario all play significant roles in predicting Arctic sea-ice area. Internal variability has a larger impact on uncertainty in the short term, while emissions scenario becomes dominant over longer time scales. Additionally, there is a considerable dependency of model uncertainty on the season, with larger uncertainties in winter months.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Valerie Thaler, Paul C. Loikith, C. Roberto Mechoso, Luana Albertani Pampuch
Summary: This study assessed climate change projections over South America using CMIP5 models, showing a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature over southern South America, mainly in tropical regions, accompanied by a poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm track.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
M. E. Olmo, T. Weber, C. Teichmann, M. L. Bettolli
Summary: The study evaluated the occurrence of different temperature- and precipitation-based compound events in South America and found that there were differences in model performance for individual events and compound events. The analysis of climate change signals showed significant increases in the frequency and duration of compound events in the future.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Article
Soil Science
Nelva B. Riquetti, Carlos R. Mello, Diuliana Leandro, Jorge A. Guzman
Summary: Future changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change may significantly impact soil erosion in continental South America. This study used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to quantify the potential impacts of precipitation changes on soil erosion.
Article
Water Resources
Giacomo Moraglia, Erika Brattich, Gregory Carbone
Summary: This study investigates trends in the pluviometric regime in North and South Carolina, USA using data from forty-four historical stations. The results show that most of the stations do not exhibit consistent, statistically significant trends in precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity. However, a third of the stations show a significant increasing trend in the annual number of light rain days. These findings contribute to the understanding of trends in the southeastern United States and have implications for adaptation planning.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Philip R. Thompson, Matthew J. Widlansky, Benjamin D. Hamlington, Mark A. Merrifield, John J. Marra, Gary T. Mitchum, William Sweet
Summary: Coastal locations around the United States, especially along the Atlantic coast, are experiencing recurrent flooding at high tide. Continued sea-level rise and tidal amplitude cycles will lead to rapid increases in the frequency of high-tide flooding as early as the mid-2030s.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Soledad Collazo, Mariana Barrucand, Matilde Rusticucci
Summary: Compound hot and dry events have greater impacts than individual extreme events, and understanding their physical mechanisms is important for early warning. This study assesses the ability of global climate models to simulate these events in South America and investigates potential future changes. The historical period shows overestimation of hot/dry events by reanalysis, while the ensemble median of GCMs performs better. Future projections suggest longer heat waves and increased frequency of compound events in southern SA. Different sea surface temperature anomalies patterns are associated with these events in tropical and extratropical SA.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
David P. P. Rowell, Segolene Berthou
Summary: Convection-permitting models have the potential to provide localized future climate information, but the gap between computational and effective resolution limits their full benefit. However, in regions with strong surface heterogeneity, fine-scale projection detail may persist close to the grid scale. Analysis of a 4.5-km resolution projection for Africa reveals statistically significant detail in areas of high topographic variability and along lake coastlines.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Maria Leidinice da Silva, Cristiano Prestrelo de Oliveira, Claudio Moises Santos e Silva, Joao Medeiros de Araujo
Summary: High-resolution simulations were conducted using RegCM4.7 and CLM4.5 models to evaluate their performance in simulating historical and future climate change over tropical South America. The results show that RegCM4.7 has added value in representing the spatial characteristics of precipitation and temperature in certain regions. However, there are still limitations in simulating precipitation over the Amazon Basin, particularly in summer.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
S. Mahya Hoseini, Mohammad R. Zolfaghari, Mohsen Soltanpour
Summary: This paper examines the projected changes in evaporation from the Caspian Sea using global climate models. The study estimates the increase in evaporation in the future and finds that arid eastern regions have higher evaporation compared to semi-arid western and southwestern temperate regions.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Benjamin J. Harrison, Joseph D. Daron, Matthew D. Palmer, Jennifer H. Weeks
Summary: This study presents local sea-level projections for South Asia and explores the drivers of spatial variations in sea-level change over the 21st century under different scenarios. It finds that the sterodynamic contribution and future groundwater extraction are the main drivers of sea-level change in the region. These projections provide valuable information for coastal planning decisions by local communities, government, and industry.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yong Sun, Haibin Wu, Gilles Ramstein, Bo Liu, Yan Zhao, Laurent Li, Xiayu Yuan, Wenchao Zhang, Lijuan Li, Liwei Zou, Tianjun Zhou
Summary: This study investigates the changes in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the mid-Holocene using data-model comparison and dynamic analysis. The results show that the dynamic effect, rather than the thermodynamic effect, is the dominant control in the increased monsoon precipitation, with the enhancement of horizontal moisture transport being the main factor.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Luciano G. Andrian, Marisol Osman, Carolina S. Vera
Summary: This paper evaluates the predictability and skill of the models from the NMME project in South America, and finds that temperature predictability is higher than precipitation predictability. The multi-model ensemble signal dominates temperature variance in autumn and summer, while inter-model biases dominate in spring and winter. The highest predictability of precipitation is found in tropical latitudes.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Shuchang Tang, Anouk Vlug, Shilong Piao, Fei Li, Tao Wang, Gerhard Krinner, Laurent Z. X. Li, Xuhui Wang, Guangjian Wu, Yue Li, Yuan Zhang, Xu Lian, Tandong Yao
Summary: In this study, using climate and glacier models, the authors found that under a high-emission scenario, darkening of the Tibetan Plateau surface albedo will lead to an increase in temperature, strengthen South Asian monsoon precipitation, exacerbate the South Flood-North Drought pattern, and cause a loss in glacier volume.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Correction
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Tristan Vadsaria, Sebastien Zaragosi, Gilles Ramstein, Jean-Claude Dutay, Laurent Li, Giuseppe Siani, Marie Revel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zuo Wen, Rong Yu, Panmao Zhai, Yixing Yin, Laurent Z. X. Li
Summary: This study examines the interaction between extreme high temperature and drought in the occurrence and intensification of compound drought and hot extreme events (CDHEE) in Southwest China. The research reveals that extreme high temperature and drought have a significant influence on each other, leading to a positive feedback cycle and exacerbating the extremity of the events.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Cornelia Klein, Lorenz Haenchen, Emily R. Potter, Clementine Junquas, Bethan L. Harris, Fabien Maussion
Summary: This study examines the impact of dynamic and thermodynamic drivers on rainfall patterns and vegetation in the Tropical Andes. The results show that both drivers play a role in determining rainfall patterns, with upper-level wind circulation being crucial in the mountains but not in the lowlands. Additionally, only 5-7 day dry spells have a prolonged effect on vegetation in the semi-arid Andes.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Na Wen, Laurent Li
Summary: This study investigates the influence of boreal winter-peaked La Nina on the precipitation in East Asia during the following summer. It is found that the impact is mediated through intermediate sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly Z-shaped cold SST anomalies in the tropical North Pacific. The SST anomalies can operate through three main mechanisms: tropical atmospheric perturbations, perturbations created through the monsoon trough, and perturbations over the tropical Atlantic-northwest Africa.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Food Science & Technology
Jin Fu, Yiwei Jian, Xuhui Wang, Laurent Li, Philippe Ciais, Jakob Zscheischler, Yin Wang, Yanhong Tang, Christoph Mueller, Heidi Webber, Bo Yang, Yali Wu, Qihui Wang, Xiaoqing Cui, Weichen Huang, Yongqiang Liu, Pengjun Zhao, Shilong Piao, Feng Zhou
Summary: Extreme rainfall has a significant impact on rice yield in China, resulting in reductions comparable to those caused by extreme heat. The main mechanisms of these impacts are the limitation of nitrogen availability for tillering and the physical disturbance on pollination. Projection suggests an additional 8% yield reduction due to extreme rainfall under warmer climate by the end of the century. These findings emphasize the importance of considering extreme rainfall in food security assessments.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Huanhuan Zhu, Zhihong Jiang, Laurent Li, Wei Li, Sheng Jiang, Panyu Zhou, Weihao Zhao, Tong Li
Summary: Climate change adaptation and policy-making require reliable projections of future climate. Multi-model ensembles are considered the most efficient way to achieve this goal. ClimWIP is the most optimal method for evaluating future climate projections, providing credible results with reduced uncertainty.
SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Zhao Li, Philippe Ciais, Jonathon S. Wright, Yong Wang, Shu Liu, Jingmeng Wang, Laurent Z. X. Li, Hui Lu, Xiaomeng Huang, Lei Zhu, Daniel S. Goll, Wei Li
Summary: Large-scale cultivation of bioenergy crops can lead to land cover changes and biophysical effects on climate, altering the global water cycle and energy balance. However, it is found that global land precipitation increases under bioenergy scenarios, partially compensating for the water consumption by these crops. Therefore, a more comprehensive assessment is highly recommended for effective climate mitigation policies.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zhiwei Zhang, Yunying Li, Laurent Li, Chao Zhang, Guorong Sun
Summary: The advection fog characteristics at Qingdao Liuting International Airport during 2000-2022 were analyzed using surface observation, sounding, and reanalysis data. Two types of fog were identified: evaporation fog (EF) dominated by northwesterly wind in winter, and cooling fog (CF) dominated by southeasterly wind in spring and summer. The formation and properties of EF and CF are influenced by different planetary boundary layer structures and sea-land-atmosphere interactions.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jie Zhang, Tongwen Wu, Laurent Li, Kalli Furtado, Xiaoge Xin, Chengjun Xie, Mengzhe Zheng, He Zhao, Yumeng Zhou
Summary: This study introduces a method of constructing a constrained multi-model ensemble to improve the reliability of near-land-surface air temperature projections. The results show that the constrained ensemble reduces the global-scale temperature change by less than 0.05℃/century compared to the raw ensemble. However, the regional results exhibit a wider range of adjustments, indicating the importance of considering regional impacts. Overall, the constrained ensemble improves the reliability of temperature projections.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Di Wang, Lide Tian, Camille Risi, Xuejie Wang, Jiangpeng Cui, Gabriel J. Bowen, Kei Yoshimura, Zhongwang Wei, Laurent Z. X. Li
Summary: Stable water isotopes are important tracers in the hydrological cycle, and their spatial and temporal distributions are influenced by various factors. In this study, the authors conducted in situ observations of near-surface vapor isotopes over a large region in China, and found that the spatial variations in isotopes are mainly influenced by seasonal mean variations during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, but also by synoptic-scale variations during the monsoon period. Factors such as moisture sources, continental recycling processes, and convection play significant roles in controlling the isotopic composition of water vapor in different periods. The results highlight the need to consider regional factors when interpreting proxy records.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Cenxiao Sun, Zhihong Jiang, Zhenfei Tang, Laurent Li
Summary: The simulation of the western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) in climate models has been improved through a multi-objective optimization strategy, which incorporates physical constraints such as sea surface temperatures. The results show that the new approach performs better than the traditional method, highlighting the importance of implementing physically based links in processing multi-model ensemble simulations.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wei Li, Zhihong Jiang, Laurent Li
Summary: CMIP6 simulations indicate that the likelihood of the compound hot and dry event occurring in the Yangtze River basin in China in summer 2022 is increased by a factor of 7 due to anthropogenic effects.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
