Journal
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Volume 40, Issue 3-4, Pages 551-568Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1605-8
Keywords
Regional climate model; Climate change; Central United States; Great Plains; Midwest; Precipitation; Model intercomparison; NARCCAP; Downscaling
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Funding
- Department of Energy BER Program
- National Science Foundation (NSF)
- U.S. Department of Energy (DoE)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development (EPA)
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A regional climate model (RCM) constrained by future anomalies averaged from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations is used to generate mid-twenty-first century climate change predictions at 30-km resolution over the central U.S. The predictions are compared with those from 15 AOGCM and 7 RCM dynamic downscaling simulations to identify common climate change signals. There is strong agreement among the multi-model ensemble in predicting wetter conditions in April and May over the northern Great Plains and drier conditions over the southern Great Plains in June through August for the mid-twenty-first century. Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation are statistically significant over only a limited portion of the central U.S. in the RCM constrained with future anomalies. Projected changes in monthly mean 2-m air temperature are generally consistent across the AOGCM ensemble average, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program RCM ensemble average, and RCM constrained with future anomalies, which produce a maximum increase in August of 2.4-2.9 K over the northern and southern Great Plains and Midwest. Changes in extremes in daily 2-m air temperature from the RCM downscaled with anomalies are statistically significant over nearly the entire Great Plains and Midwest and indicate a positive shift in the warm tail of the daily 2-m temperature distribution that is larger than the positive shift in the cold tail.
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