Journal
CHEMICAL GEOLOGY
Volume 294, Issue -, Pages 243-248Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.chemgeo.2011.12.008
Keywords
Tree rings; Climate reconstruction; Stable isotopes; Pooling; Proxy time-series; Error
Categories
Funding
- Natural Environment Research Council [NER/S/A/2006/14077, NEB501504]
- EU [017008]
- Climate Change Consortium of Wales
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/B501504/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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Stable carbon isotope time-series (delta C-13) from tree-rings are capable of providing valuable palaeoclimatic information, but analysis of individual tree-rings is time consuming and expensive. Pooling material from several tree-rings prior to isotopic analysis reduces costs, but does not allow the magnitude of uncertainty in the mean delta C-13 chronology to be calculated unless the pool is broken and each tree-ring measured individually at regular intervals. Here we use a comparison of pooled and mean individual (the arithmetic mean of isotopic data from tree series measured individually) delta C-13 records between AD 1650 and 2007, comprising cores from 21 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L) trees growing in the western Highlands of Scotland. The aim is to determine whether the true error structure of the time series is better captured by using the overall mean error estimate for the entire time series or by linear interpolation between the equally spaced measurements. We conclude that where autocorrelation exists within the error structure of a chronology, annual estimates of 95% confidence intervals, developed through linear interpolation at 5-year or 10-year intervals, are preferable to using the overall mean uncertainty. The method outlined increases the viability of pooled delta C-13 records for palaeoclimatic research by retaining error structure whilst reducing analytical time and costs. The method is applied here using tree-ring data, but could theoretically be applied to any well-replicated time-series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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