Journal
JOURNAL OF FORENSIC SCIENCES
Volume 61, Issue -, Pages S201-S207Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.12931
Keywords
forensic science; forensic taphonomy; decomposition; accumulated degree days; regression models; inverse prediction; statistical models
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Megyesi et al.' s (J Forensic Sci, 2005, 50, 618) paper was important to forensic anthropology as it introduced a quantitative framework for estimating time since death in human cadavers, based upon physical appearance by way of scoring on a novel scale. However, errors concerning rounding, temperature scale, and incorrect use of a statistical regression model render their predictive formula unusable. Based upon only their more reliable data, a more appropriate regression model to predict accumulated degree days (ADD) from total body score (TBS) is presented. The new model is also a superior fit (r(2) = 0.91) and produces markedly narrower confidence intervals than the original, which also allowed impossible, negative ADD values. Explanations of the shortcomings in the original analysis and calculations are presented, which it is hoped will help forensic scientists avoid making similar mistakes.
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