Stochastic and spatially explicit population viability analyses for an endangered freshwater turtle, Clemmys guttata

Over two thirds of the world's turtle species are in decline as a result of habitat destruction and harvesting. Quantitative methods for predicting the risk of extinction of turtle populations are essential for status assessments and recovery planning. Spotted turtles (Clemmys guttata (Schneider, 1792)) are considered vulnerable internationally, and endangered in Canada. We used population viability analysis to assess the risk of extirpation of a Georgian Bay, Ontario, population that has been under study since 1977 and of nine Ontario populations for which population size is known, and to examine the effects of dispersal between breeding ponds on population persistence. A simple stochastic model for the Georgian Bay population projected a 60% probability of extirpation in 100 years. A metapopulation model for the same study area projected an 18% probability of extirpation within 100 years, suggesting that dispersal between breeding ponds is important for population persistence. Spotted turtles at this relatively pristine site have a relatively high risk of extinction despite the absence of anthropogenic additive mortality. Probability of quasi-extinction as a result of stochasticity for the model simulating nine Ontario populations was low, but the probability of six or more of the nine known Ontario populations becoming extirpated within 100 years was 26%, indicating that recovery action is necessary to prevent decline of spotted turtles within the species' Canadian range, which is restricted to Ontario.