Isolation or metapopulation: whence and whither the Smith Sound cod?

In April 1995, a spawning aggregation of northern'' Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) (10 000 t) appeared in Smith Sound, Newfoundland, growing to 26 000 t by year 2000. The origin of the founder year classes (primarily the 1990 and 1992 year classes) and potential for expansion remains controversial, with genetic isolation used to justify reopenings of coastal fisheries. We investigated the origin using historical, demographic, and genetic data. History provided no evidence of large aggregations before 1995. Demographics in the early 1990s suggested few spawners in Smith Sound, but many in the adjacent Bonavista Corridor. The strong 1990 year class was not evident until 1995 and the strong 1992 year class until 1997 (both age 5 and first maturity). Genetic study of six microsatellite loci from 791 cod from overwintering aggregations in Smith Sound and offshore regions indicated little to no differentiation (F-ST) among southern groups (Smith Sound, Bonavista Corridor, Halibut Channel). These results provide a perspective that these groups comprise a metapopulation and that the Smith Sound aggregation arose not from self-recruitment but immigration. By 2009, the aggregation had dispersed, with large concurrent increases in the Bonavista Corridor.