Predictors of Loco-Regional Recurrence and Cancer-Related Death after Breast Cancer Surgery

To determine which tumor-related factors might predispose the patient to loco-regional recurrence or death and the impact of these factors on the different types of events. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 1991 women between January 1998 and March 2010 for a first primary nonmetastatic breast cancer and treated with surgery and neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy. The overall survival distribution was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The prognostic impact of several factors on cumulative overall and loco-regional recurrence free survival was evaluated by univariate (log-rank test) and multivariate analysis (Cox regression). At log-rank test, pT, nodal status, histotype, grading, lymphangioinvasive growth, tumor diameter, estrogen receptors (ER) status, progesterone receptors (PR) status, expression of Ki67, and expression of Her2/neu had a prognostic value on loco-regional recurrence or overall survival. In the multivariate analysis grading remained the only independent predictor of loco-regional recurrences. With regard to overall survival, the Cox model selected grading along with nodal status and PR status. Loco-regional recurrences after breast cancer surgery are not frequent events. They are markers of tumor aggressiveness and predictor of an increased likelihood of cancer-related death. However, loco-regional recurrence and systemic tumor progression are partially independent events, since some prognostic factors differ.