Prognostic and predictive value of clinical and biochemical factors in breast cancer patients with bone metastases receiving metronomic zoledronic acid

Background: To assess prognostic and predictive effects of clinical and biochemical factors in our published randomized study of a weekly low dose (metronomic arm) versus a conventional dosage of zoledronic acid (conventional arm) in breast cancer patients with bone metastases. Methods: Treatment outcome of 60 patients with bone metastases were used to assess impacts of following potential prognostic factors, estrogen receptor status, lymph node status, 2 year-disease free interval (DFI), numbers of chemotherapy regimens administered, interventions, and serum levels of VEGF, N-telopeptide of type I collagen (NTx), CEA, and CA 15-3. Results: In univariate analyses, patients pretreated with 2 or fewer chemotherapy regimens, ER-positive tumors, 3 or fewer lymph nodes, DFI of more than 2 years, serum VEGF of less than 500 pg/mL after 3 months of intervention, serum CEA and CA 15-3 of less than ULN, and baseline serum NTx of less than 18 nM BCE had significantly longer progression free survival (PFS). The multivariate analysis showed that ER positivity (hazard ratio [HR], 0.295; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.141-0.618; P = 0.001), serum VEGF of less than 500 pg/mL after 3 months of intervention (HR, 2.220; 95% CI, 1.136-4.338; P = 0.020), baseline serum NTx of less than 18 nM BCE (HR, 2.842; 95% CI, 1.458-5.539; P = 0.001), and 2 or fewer chemotherapy regimens received (HR, 7.803; 95% CI, 2.884-21.112; P = 0.000) were associated with a better PFS. When evaluating the predictive effect of the biochemical factors, an interaction between NTx and zoledronic acid intervention was shown (P = 0.005). The HR of weekly low dose versus a conventional dosage of zoledronic acid was estimated to be 2.309 (99% CI, 1.067-5.012) in patients with baseline serum NTx of more than 18 nM BCE, indicating a superiority of weekly low dose of zoledronic acid. Conclusions: ER, serum VEGF level after intervention, and numbers of chemotherapy regimens administered are prognostic but not predictive factors in breast cancer patients with bone metastases. Patients with baseline serum NTx of more than 18 nM BCE might benefit more from weekly low-dose of zoledronic acid.