Article
Environmental Sciences
Song Xiang, Wang Dan-Yun, Li Fang, Zeng Xiao-Dong
Summary: Evaluation of vegetation structure and distribution simulations is crucial for understanding historical and future changes in terrestrial ecosystems, carbon cycle, and climate. This study systematically investigates the spatial and temporal variability of three critical variables from 27 ESMs in CMIP6 using satellite observations, finding that most models overestimate global LAI and fail to capture temporal variability in annual LAI. Further development and parameterization of dynamic vegetation within Earth system models are urgently needed to improve reliability of vegetation simulations for global change research.
ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hoonyoung Park, Sujong Jeong
Summary: This study evaluates the LAI seasonality of deciduous forests simulated by 14 ESMs participating in CMIP5 and CMIP6 to understand the effectiveness of recent ESMs in describing leaf dynamics in the northern extratropics. CMIP6 models tend to show larger annual means, weaker amplitudes, and delayed phases compared to CMIP5 models, attributed to a systematic positive bias in EOS. Further tests on phenological responses to seasonal temperature reveal inaccuracies in the sensitivities of SOS and EOS in the majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 ESMs.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Plant Sciences
Adam R. Hanbury-Brown, Thomas L. Powell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, S. Joseph Wright, Lara M. Kueppers
Summary: This article presents a new recruitment scheme that predicts the response of global forests to climate change by considering factors such as light, soil moisture, and reproductive tree productivity. The study shows that this scheme improves the prediction of recruitment rates among different functional types and captures recruitment limitations under varying conditions.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Qiwen Hu, Tingting Li, Xi Deng, Tongwen Wu, Panmao Zhai, Danqing Huang, Xingwang Fan, Yakun Zhu, Yongcheng Lin, Xiucheng Xiao, Xianyan Chen, Xiaosong Zhao, Lili Wang, Zhangcai Qin
Summary: Earth system models have been widely used to simulate global terrestrial carbon fluxes, including gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP). This study evaluated the model performance of 22 ESMs participating in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projects, finding that the multi-model ensembles (MME) outperformed individual models in simulating GPP and NPP. Despite improvements in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, there is still much work needed to enhance the performance of individual ESMs and the overall CMIP. Future work should focus on more comprehensive model mechanisms and higher resolution coupling of land surface and atmospheric/oceanic schemes.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Theresa A. O'Meara, Peter E. Thornton, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Genevieve L. Noyce, Roy L. Rich, J. Patrick Megonigal
Summary: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulates interactions among complex cycles and processes in terrestrial ecosystems but lacks extensive understanding of coastal systems dynamics. The project aimed to modify the E3SM land model to study marsh community responses and investigate C3 plant reactions to temperature and CO2 changes. Further updates to physiological parameters and feedback mechanisms between vegetation and biogeochemical processes are planned for future research.
ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christian Seiler, Joe R. Melton, Vivek K. Arora, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Anthoni, Daniel Goll, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Soenke Zaehle
Summary: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of terrestrial biosphere models in reproducing the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. While there is reasonable agreement between model output and reference data, improvements are still needed, such as reducing biases in leaf area index and improving the representation of processes governing soil organic carbon.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yixuan Shen, Yuan Sun, Zhong Zhong, Tim Li
Summary: The study proposed a comprehensive method for evaluating the capability of climate models in simulating multi-faceted characteristics of global TCs. It found that some climate models performed better in simulating global TCs overall, with significant differences in their capabilities across different ocean basins.
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Juan A. Anel, Michael Garcia-Rodriguez, Javier Rodeiro
Summary: A study on the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models reveals limitations in code access and highlights the need for the climate modeling community to improve its code-sharing practices in order to comply with best practices and recent editorial publishing policies.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Neng Luo, Yan Guo, Jieming Chou, Zhibo Gao
Summary: The CMIP6 models show improvements in simulating climatological precipitation extremes over China, reducing dry biases in South China and producing more heavy precipitation events. Additionally, wet biases over West China are also reduced, related to reduced precipitation frequency and weakened precipitation intensity. Overall, the CMIP6 models have improved in simulating total precipitation on wet days, but biases still exist in simulating consecutive dry days.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
He XiaMan, Jiang Chao, Wang Jun, Wang XiangPing
Summary: This study evaluated and compared the performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating surface air temperature in Northeast China, finding that the CMIP6 models show significant improvement and are more effective in simulating temperature variations compared to CMIP5 models.
CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION
(2022)
Article
Geography, Physical
Wenping Yuan, Shangrong Lin, Xiaoyuan Wang
Summary: Vegetation production is a crucial variable in terrestrial ecosystems, with significant implications for carbon balance, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and global climate change. Satellite-based models have been widely adopted to quantify regional and global vegetation production, benefiting from continuous remote sensing observations. Chinese scientists have made significant contributions in this field, developing and implementing plant production models, improving our understanding of terrestrial functions and structures. However, there is still room for improvement in current models and estimation techniques.
PROGRESS IN PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY-EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Xuewen Zhou, Qinchuan Xin, Yongjiu Dai, Wanjing Li
Summary: This study utilized a deep learning approach to predict the timing of global vegetation phenology metrics, with results showing that the 1D-CNNR model effectively captured the spatial patterns and inter-annual variations of satellite-derived multiyear vegetation phenology metrics on a global scale.
GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
S. Kou-Giesbrecht, V. K. Arora
Summary: This study compares terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) with and without nitrogen cycling in different future scenarios and finds that the influence of nitrogen cycling on CO2 fertilization and global change drivers is uncertain. In the historical period, nitrogen deposition and fertilization have stimulated terrestrial carbon sequestration, so a model without nitrogen cycling must exaggerate CO2 fertilization to compensate for these unrepresented processes and reproduce the historical carbon sink. However, in future scenarios, the model fails to realistically project the future carbon sink as the trajectories of CO2, nitrogen deposition, and fertilization diverge.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Matieyendou Lamboni
Summary: This paper derives practical dependency functions for classical multivariate distributions, which are useful for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and simulation of random variables. A method for selecting efficient sampling functions using multivariate sensitivity analysis is provided, and the approach is illustrated through numerical simulations.
MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTERS IN SIMULATION
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Brian Ayugi, Jiang Zhihong, Huanhuan Zhu, Hamida Ngoma, Hassen Babaousmail, Karim Rizwan, Victor Dike
Summary: This study examines the improvements in simulating mean and extreme precipitation in East Africa using the CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5. The results show that the CMIP6 models have better performance in simulating seasonal rainfall, but there is still uncertainty and a need for further investigation into the sources of systematic biases.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Ecology
Chang Gyo Jung, Zhenggang Du, Oleksandra Hararuk, Xia Xu, Junyi Liang, Xuhui Zhou, Dejun Li, Lifen Jiang, Yiqi Luo
Summary: This study evaluated the performance of the TECO model in simulating total and heterotrophic soil respiration during a 16-year warming experiment in a mixed-grass prairie; calibrated model parameters against observations and explored potential changes in carbon dynamics mechanisms over the years. Calibrating the model parameters against individual year observations significantly improved model performance, showing an increasing recalcitrance of soil C and changing environmental sensitivity of microbes. The findings suggest that soil respiration may decrease in the future due to changes in C quality, but this decrease could be offset by warming-induced changes in C cycling mechanisms and their responses to moisture conditions.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
X. Liu, J. Yao, T. Wu, S. Zhang, F. Xu, L. Zhang, W. Jie, W. Zhou, Q. Li, X. Liang, M. Chu, J. Yan, S. Nie, Y. Cheng
Summary: The development of a coupled data assimilation system has led to reliable analysis of the atmosphere, ocean, and sea-ice states, with a focus on the importance of coordinating sea-ice observations and ocean observations. The system realistically reproduces the climatology and variability of ocean, sea-ice, and atmosphere, showing significant improvements in temperature error reduction in the upper ocean and effective analysis in the high-latitude Southern Ocean through sea-ice data assimilation.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Limnology
Lan Li, Yiming Luo, Markus Kienast, Di Qi, Jerry Tjiputra
Summary: The study reveals that the carbonate system in the deep Western Pacific marginal sea basins is mostly governed by the global ocean thermohaline circulation, while the Japan/East Sea has unique carbonate characteristics with limited accumulation. The sedimentary calcium carbonate profiles in the Tasman Sea and South Fiji Basin are comparable to those in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, reflecting the influence of open-ocean carbonate chemistry.
LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Timothee Bourgeois, Nadine Goris, Jorg Schwinger, Jerry F. Tjiputra
Summary: The heat and carbon uptakes in the Southern Ocean between 30 degrees S and 55 degrees S are critical for mitigating climate change. The use of water column stability as an emergent constraint significantly reduces projection uncertainties. The relationship between the models’ contemporary stratification and future estimates of carbon uptake and heat efficiency highlights the importance of improving the representation of stratification in Earth system models for accurate climate change projections.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Tarkeshwar Singh, Francois Counillon, Jerry Tjiputra, Yiguo Wang, Mohamad El Gharamti
Summary: This study demonstrates the ability of ensemble data assimilation methods to provide improved estimates of biogeochemical (BGC) model parameters and shows how BGC observations can effectively constrain errors in ocean physics. The method quickly converges and significantly reduces parameter errors.
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Family Studies
Andriy Koval, William Howard Beasley, Oleksandra Hararuk, Joseph Lee Rodgers
Summary: This article introduces epidemic models of the onset of social activities, including social contagion and general diffusion as social influence methods. Through studying the changes in adolescent and young adult religious participation, it is found that general diffusion is the main reason for the rapid reduction in church attendance during adolescence, while both diffusion and social contagion explain the stability of church attendance in early adulthood.
JOURNAL OF RESEARCH ON ADOLESCENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
O. Hararuk, S. E. Jones, C. T. Solomon
Summary: This study reveals the scale and impact of hydrologic export of soil organic carbon in various catchments across the conterminous United States, emphasizing the importance of including hydrologic export in carbon cycle models.
GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yongjie Fang, Tongwen Wu, Aixue Hu, Min Chu
Summary: This article describes a modified thermodynamic sea ice model suitable for large-scale climate simulations. With several improvements in the vertical thermodynamics, such as increased number of ice layers, inclusion of snow heat capacity, implementation of vertically varying salinity profile, and introduction of temperature-and salinity-dependent heat conductivity parameterization scheme, the modified model shows improved sea ice simulation.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jian Rao, Chaim I. I. Garfinkel, Tongwen Wu, Jing-Jia Luo, Yixiong Lu, Min Chu, Qian Lu
Summary: The prediction of regional precipitation anomalies in East Asia is more difficult for seasonal forecasting models than for the large-scale drivers of these anomalies. These large-scale drivers include sea surface temperature anomalies and conditions in the polar stratosphere. A maximum covariance analysis is used to identify the patterns of sea surface temperature and stratospheric circulation that are most associated with abnormal precipitation in East Asia, and these patterns are used to correct seasonal forecasts. The correction of seasonal forecasts using the observed linkage between stratosphere-tropical ocean modes and East Asian rainfall improves the nonuniform predictability of rainfall in East Asia.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jie Zhang, Tongwen Wu, Laurent Li, Kalli Furtado, Xiaoge Xin, Chengjun Xie, Mengzhe Zheng, He Zhao, Yumeng Zhou
Summary: This study introduces a method of constructing a constrained multi-model ensemble to improve the reliability of near-land-surface air temperature projections. The results show that the constrained ensemble reduces the global-scale temperature change by less than 0.05℃/century compared to the raw ensemble. However, the regional results exhibit a wider range of adjustments, indicating the importance of considering regional impacts. Overall, the constrained ensemble improves the reliability of temperature projections.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Aixue Hu, Gerald A. Meehl, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Weiqing Han, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Feng He, Tongwen Wu, Nan Rosenbloom, Warren G. Strand, James Edwards
Summary: The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depends on both the background climate and the type of primary external forcing. The collapse of this circulation can be triggered by freshwater or greenhouse gas forcing under present or future conditions, but only by freshwater forcing under glacial conditions. The status of the Bering Strait is directly related to the presence of hysteresis in this circulation, regardless of background climate conditions.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, Harry Hendon
Summary: This paper introduces the SNAPSI project, which aims to study the impacts of polar stratospheric vortex disturbances on surface predictability through comparing multiple models. By conducting experiments, this project aims to address four main scientific goals, thus improving the understanding of stratospheric variability and tropospheric coupling.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Henry Bowman, Steven Turnock, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Larry Horowitz, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Dagmar Kubistin, David D. Parrish
Summary: Simulations from CMIP6 Earth system models show that the seasonal cycle of baseline tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes has been shifting since the mid-20th century. This shift is related to changes in anthropogenic emissions and the rise and fall of ozone precursor concentrations.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Filippa Fransner, Friederike Frob, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Siv K. Lauvset, Ingunn Skjelvan, Emil Jeansson, Abdirahman Omar, Melissa Chierici, Elizabeth Jones, Agneta Fransson, Solveig R. Olafsdottir, Truls Johannessen, Are Olsen
Summary: The Nordic Seas and their cold-water corals are vulnerable to ocean acidification due to low calcium carbonate saturation states and anthropogenic carbon. pH and aragonite saturation have decreased since the preindustrial era, with simulations indicating a faster decrease in pH compared to the global ocean. Cold-water corals are at risk of exposure to undersaturated waters, with scenarios suggesting different levels of endangerment based on future projections.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Jane P. Mulcahy, Laura J. Wilcox, Ben B. Booth, David Sexton, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, Qianxia Liu
Summary: The Earth system models in CMIP6 show excessive cooling in surface air temperature between 1960 and 1990, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, due to higher aerosol burden in the models. Despite similar aerosol forcing sensitivity between models, the relative contributions of aerosol-radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) can differ substantially, with ACI being the main source of sensitivity differences among ESMs. The ACI, which can be further divided into cloud-amount and cloud-albedo terms, accounts for most of the inter-model differences.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2021)