Journal
AUSTRALASIAN JOURNAL ON AGEING
Volume 29, Issue 3, Pages 111-116Publisher
WILEY-BLACKWELL
DOI: 10.1111/j.1741-6612.2010.00392.x
Keywords
Australia; dementia; modelling; prevention; risk factors
Categories
Funding
- Dementia Collaborative Research Centre for Prevention, Early Intervention, and Risk Reduction
- Australian Government Initiative
- NATSEM
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Aim: To model impact of modifiable risk behaviour on dementia prevalence among the Australian population aged 45 years and over. Methods: A group-based computer model was constructed to estimate the impact of modifying risk behaviour on dementia prevalence. Results: Based on population ageing, the number of people aged 45 years and over living with dementia is expected to triple from 187 000 in 2006 to 650 000 by 2051. A drop in proportion ever smokers by 5% every 5 years would lower population with dementia by 2% in 2051. If obesity rate drops by 5%, dementia prevalence would be lower by 6%. A decline in physical inactivity rate by 5% would reduce dementia by 11%. Persistence of the growing trend in obesity and physical inactivity would result in a larger than expected dementia epidemic. Conclusion: Improving the risk behaviours has potential to make a substantial reduction in the number of people with dementia.
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