DECLINE AND RECOVERY OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD DURING THE PROTRACTED SOLAR MINIMUM

The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is determined by the amount of solar magnetic flux that passes through the top of the solar corona into the heliosphere, and by the dynamical evolution of that flux. Recently, it has been argued that the total flux of the IMF evolves over the solar cycle due to a combination of flux that extends well outside of 1 AU and is associated with the solar wind, and additionally, transient flux associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In addition to the CME eruption rate, there are three fundamental processes involving conversion of magnetic flux (from transient to wind-associated), disconnection, and interchange reconnection that control the levels of each form of magnetic flux in the interplanetary medium. This is distinct from some earlier models in which the wind-associated component remains steady across the solar cycle. We apply the model of Schwadron et al. that quantifies the sources, interchange, and losses of magnetic flux to 50 yr of interplanetary data as represented by the Omni2 data set using the sunspot number as a proxy for the CME eruption rate. We do justify the use of that proxy substitution. We find very good agreement between the predicted and observed interplanetary magnetic flux. In the absence of sufficient CME eruptions, the IMF falls on the timescale of similar to 6 yr. A key result is that rising toroidal flux resulting from CME eruption predates the increase in wind-associated IMF.