IRREGULAR SATELLITES OF THE OUTER PLANETS: ORBITAL UNCERTAINTIES AND ASTROMETRIC RECOVERIES IN 2009-2011

More than 100 small satellites have been identified orbiting the giant planets in distant, inclined, eccentric orbits. Detailed study of these objects requires that their orbits be known well enough to permit routine observations both from the Earth and from spacecraft. Unfortunately, many of the satellites have very poorly known orbits due to a scarcity of astrometric measurements. We have developed a reliable method to estimate the future on-sky position uncertainties of the satellites and have verified that those uncertainties provide a correct measure of the true on-sky positional uncertainty. Based on the uncertainties, we identified a set of satellites that are effectively lost and another set that would be lost if additional observations were not obtained in the near future. We attempted recoveries of 26 of the latter group using the Hale 5 m and CFHT 3.6 m telescopes and found 23. This validated our method's predictions and led to significant improvements in our knowledge of the orbits of the recovered moons. There remains a handful of irregular moons which are recoverable and whose orbits will benefit from additional observations during the next decade, while 16 moons of Jupiter and Saturn are essentially lost and will require a re-survey to be located again.