Observed and Projected Climate Change in the Churchill Region of the Hudson Bay Lowlands and Implications for Pond Sustainability

There is concern over the fate of surface water bodies at high latitudes as a consequence of rising global temperatures. The goal of this study is to characterize climatic change that has occurred in the northern Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL), Canada, from 1943 to 2009, to determine if this has resulted in a change to pond surface areas and to predict if changes may continue in the future. Climate change and changes to pond volume and size over the past similar to 60 years were examined using a combination of field methods/instrumental records (1943-2009), modeling (1953-2009; 1961-2100), and remote sensing/imagery analyses (1947-2008). Results demonstrate that temperatures are warming and breakup dates are earlier, but this has not significantly increased the duration of the open-water period or pond evaporation rates, which can be highly variable from year to year. Annual precipitation, primarily summer rainfall, has increased, lessening the summer moisture deficit and leading to wetter conditions. The observed changes of a smaller summer moisture deficit are predicted to continue in future, although there is less certainty with predictions of future precipitation than there is with predictions of air temperature. Thus, ponds are likely not at risk for drying and instead may be at risk for expansion. Despite the increases in summer rainfall, imagery analysis of 100 ponds shows that pond surface areas have fluctuated over the study period but have not increased in size.