4.6 Article

Small world network models of the dynamics of HIV infection

Journal

ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
Volume 178, Issue 1, Pages 173-200

Publisher

SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10479-009-0571-y

Keywords

Small world networks; HIV; Health care modelling; Simulation

Ask authors/readers for more resources

It has long been recognised that the structure of social networks plays an important role in the dynamics of disease propagation. The spread of HIV results from a complex network of social interactions and other factors related to culture, sexual behaviour, demography, geography and disease characteristics, as well as the availability, accessibility and delivery of healthcare. The small world phenomenon has recently been used for representing social network interactions. It states that, given some random connections, the degrees of separation between any two individuals within a population can be very small. In this paper we present a discrete event simulation model which uses a variant of the small world network model to represent social interactions and the sexual transmission of HIV within a population. We use the model to demonstrate the importance of the choice of topology and initial distribution of infection, and capture the direct and non-linear relationship between the probability of a casual partnership (small world randomness parameter) and the spread of HIV. Finally, we illustrate the use of our model for the evaluation of interventions such as the promotion of safer sex and introduction of a vaccine.

Authors

I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.

Reviews

Primary Rating

4.6
Not enough ratings

Secondary Ratings

Novelty
-
Significance
-
Scientific rigor
-
Rate this paper

Recommended

Article Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications

Near real-time bed modelling feasibility study

Tracey England, Daniel Gartner, Edward Ostler, Paul Harper, Doris Behrens, John Boulton, Dilwyn Bull, Claire Cordeaux, Ian Jenkins, Fiona Lindsay, Rhys Monk, Leanne Watkins

Summary: Hospital bed management is crucial for patient care, and a simulation model has been developed to mimic real-world bed management rules to improve efficiency. The study showed that accurately forecasting, using data and statistical distributions to predict patient length of stay, and applying generic bed management rules can correctly predict the short-term processes of a Trauma & Orthopaedic bed management system.

JOURNAL OF SIMULATION (2021)

Article Management

Resource optimization for cancer pathways with aggregate diagnostic demand: a perishable inventory approach

Edilson F. Arruda, Paul Harper, Tracey England, Daniel Gartner, Emma Aspland, Fabricio O. Ourique, Tom Crosby

Summary: This work proposes a novel framework for planning the capacity of diagnostic tests in cancer pathways by considering the aggregate demand of referrals from multiple cancer specialties. It includes an analytic tool that recursively assesses the overall daily demand and models the system as a perishable inventory problem, aiming to provide recommendations for aligning capacity and demand effectively and efficiently in cancer services. The case study demonstrates the applicability of the methods on lung cancer referrals from the UK's National Health Service.

IMA JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT MATHEMATICS (2021)

Article Oncology

Examining the diagnostic pathway for lung cancer patients in Wales using discrete event simulation

Tracey J. England, Paul R. Harper, Tom Crosby, Daniel Gartner, Edilson F. Arruda, Kieran G. Foley, Ian J. Williamson

Summary: A Discrete Event Simulation was used to analyze bottlenecks in lung cancer treatment pathways at two Welsh hospitals, revealing opportunities for improvement in patient outcomes.

TRANSLATIONAL LUNG CANCER RESEARCH (2021)

Article Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications

Modelling lung cancer diagnostic pathways using discrete event simulation

Tracey England, Paul Harper, Tom Crosby, Daniel Gartner, Edilson F. Arruda, Kieran Foley, Ian Williamson

Summary: This study examines the lung cancer survival rates and diagnostic pathways in the United Kingdom, specifically focusing on Wales. The research demonstrates the potential to improve treatment outcomes by shortening the time from diagnosis to treatment through timely patient appointments and streamlined diagnostic testing strategies.

JOURNAL OF SIMULATION (2023)

Article Health Care Sciences & Services

A survey of OR/MS models on care planning for frail and elderly patients

Elizabeth Williams, Daniel Gartner, Paul Harper

Summary: With an ageing population, there is an increased demand on public health services and long-term-care facilities. Many health services are faced with the complex problem of administering the best care for frail and elderly patients while managing limited resources. This paper focuses on literature concerning frail and elderly patient pathways in both hospital and community care settings using Operations Research and Management Science methods.

OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE (2021)

Article Health Care Sciences & Services

Emergency services utilization in Jakarta (Indonesia): a cross-sectional study of patients attending hospital emergency departments

Syaribah Noor Brice, Justin J. Boutilier, Daniel Gartner, Paul Harper, Vincent Knight, Jen Lloyd, Aryono Djuned Pusponegoro, Asti Puspita Rini, Jonathan Turnbull-Ross, Mark Tuson

Summary: Pre-hospital and emergency services in Indonesia are still developing. This study explored the utilization of emergency medical services by patients attending hospital emergency departments in Jakarta. The results showed low utilization of ambulances, primarily due to patients' lack of awareness and knowledge about the service, as well as the high costs and long response times.

BMC HEALTH SERVICES RESEARCH (2022)

Article Management

A game theoretic model of the behavioural gaming that takes place at the EMS- ED interface

Michalis Panayides, Vince Knight, Paul Harper

Summary: This research presents a 3-player game theoretic model for two queueing systems and a service that distributes individuals between them. The model explores the dynamics between all players and utilizes discrete event simulation and Markov chains for analysis. The study also examines the impact of time-target measures on patient well-being. The proposed model has applications in healthcare, particularly in understanding the behavior between Emergency Medical Service and Emergency Department.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH (2023)

Article Dentistry, Oral Surgery & Medicine

The development and application of a chairside oral health risk and need stratification tool in general dental services

Anwen Louise Cope, Christian Bannister, Anup Karki, Paul Harper, Michael Allen, Rhiannon Jones, Sarah Peddle, Brenda Walters, Ivor Gordon Chestnutt

Summary: The study analyzed data from dental practices in NHS GDS Wales using the ACORN stratification tool. Results showed that 'amber' and 'red' ACORN outcomes led to more treatment courses per year than 'green' outcomes, indicating an increased risk of dental issues.

JOURNAL OF DENTISTRY (2022)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Modeling disease progression and treatment pathways for depression jointly using agent based modeling and system dynamics

Syaribah N. Brice, Paul R. Harper, Daniel Gartner, Doris A. Behrens

Summary: This paper presents a hybrid simulation modeling framework that captures both disease progression and related care pathways for depression. The framework quantifies demand, service capacities, and costs, and provides solutions for various scenarios.

FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH (2023)

Article Health Policy & Services

Modelling changes in healthcare demand through geographic data extrapolation

Geraint Ian Palmer, Paul Harper, Vincent Knight, Cathy Brooks

Summary: The Stay Well Plans are a new care programme for frail and elderly individuals in Newport, with a planned roll out across all counties serviced by Aneurin Bevan University Health Board. Data analysis and modelling have been used to predict the effects of the programme on the wider system, indicating a potential decrease in demand for residential care and an increase in demand for community care services.

HEALTH SYSTEMS (2022)

Article Health Policy & Services

Needs-led human resource planning for Sierra Leone in support of oral health

Swapnil Gajendra Ghotane, Patric Don-Davis, David Kamara, Paul R. Harper, Stephen J. Challacombe, Jennifer E. Gallagher

Summary: The study reveals the significant workforce requirements needed to provide even basic oral health care to the population of Sierra Leone. There is a substantial gap between the current workforce and the oral health needs of the population, highlighting the need for urgent action. The study also illustrates the potential for utilizing contemporary epidemiological tools to predict dental treatment needs and guide workforce capacity building in low-income countries through various solutions involving mid-level providers and non-dental personnel.

HUMAN RESOURCES FOR HEALTH (2021)

Review Health Policy & Services

Factors influencing the delivery of cancer pathways: a summary of the literature

Syaribah Noor Brice, Paul Harper, Tom Crosby, Daniel Gartner, Edilson Arruda, Tracey England, Emma Aspland, Kieran Foley

Summary: This study aims to summarize the literature on cancer care pathways at the diagnostic and treatment phases. The research identified factors influencing the delivery of cancer care pathways, highlighted interrelated factors, found gaps in the literature, and summarized strategies and recommendations implemented in the studies. The study used a qualitative approach and developed a causal loop diagram to summarize the current literature on cancer care pathways.

JOURNAL OF HEALTH ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT (2021)

Article Health Policy & Services

Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university

Paul R. Harper, Joshua W. Moore, Thomas E. Woolley

Summary: An open-source model is provided to estimate the number of secondary Covid-19 infections caused by potentially infectious students returning from university to private homes. The prediction is that an infectious student would infect, on average, 0.94 other household members. The study also offers Matlab code and an online app for estimating secondary infections based on local parameters, with the aim of supporting policy making worldwide.

HEALTH SYSTEMS (2021)

Article Health Policy & Services

Constructing operating theatre schedules using partitioned graph colouring techniques

Ahmed Kheiri, Rhyd Lewis, Jonathan Thompson, Paul Harper

Summary: The study proposes an exact technique based on the partitioned graph colouring problem for constructing optimal master surgery schedules, aiming to minimize the number of cancellations. The results indicate that optimizing surgery schedules can increase the utilization of post-operative beds, reduce the number of cancellations, ultimately leading to shorter patient waiting times.

HEALTH SYSTEMS (2021)

Review Health Policy & Services

Clinical pathway modelling: a literature review

Emma Aspland, Daniel Gartner, Paul Harper

Summary: This study proposes a taxonomy of problems related to clinical pathways and explores the intersection between Information Systems, Operational Research, and industrial engineering. Findings suggest that future work should consider integrating industrial engineering with OR techniques to improve handling of multiple scopes and focus on patient outcomes. Achieving this would bridge the gap between OR, IS, and industrial engineering for clinical pathways to support decision making.

HEALTH SYSTEMS (2021)

No Data Available