4.5 Article

Using Geographic Information System-based Ecologic Niche Models to Forecast the Risk of Hantavirus Infection in Shandong Province, China

Journal

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE
Volume 84, Issue 3, Pages 497-503

Publisher

AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE
DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0314

Keywords

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Funding

  1. Chinese National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars [30725032]
  2. Special Program for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in China [2008ZX10004-012, 2009ZX10004-720]
  3. Natural Science Foundation of China [30590374, 30972521]

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Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important public health problem in Shandong Province, China. In this study, we combined ecologic niche modeling with geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to identify the risk factors and affected areas of hantavirus infections in rodent hosts. Land cover and elevation were found to be closely associated with the presence of hantavirus-infected rodent hosts. The averaged area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864, implying good performance. The predicted risk maps based on the model were validated both by the hantavirus-infected rodents' distribution and HFRS human case localities with a good fit. These findings have the applications for targeting control and prevention efforts.

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