Article
Environmental Sciences
Fan Jia, Wenju Cai, Bolan Gan, Lixin Wu, Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Summary: Research suggests that under high-emissions warming scenarios, the North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) strengthens its impact on El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), leading to increased frequency of extreme ENSO events and improved predictability.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Masahiro Shiozaki, Takeshi Enomoto, Koutarou Takaya
Summary: The study found that the eastern Pacific El Nino has different influences on winter climate in the Far East. The warm winter is dominated by the western Pacific pattern, while the non-warm winter is dominated by the Pacific-North American pattern. Additionally, Indian Ocean warming follows the Indian Ocean dipole mode.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Madeline McKenna, Christina Karamperidou
Summary: This study examines the relationship between Northern Hemisphere blocking events and the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) flavors of El Nino. The results show that these two El Nino flavors have different impacts on atmospheric circulation, affecting the strength and placement of the upper-level jet stream, and thus the frequency and duration of blocking events. Therefore, future investigations of blocking and ENSO-related variability should consider the different El Nino flavors.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Tao Geng, Wenju Cai, Lixin Wu, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Zhao Jing, Bolan Gan, Yun Yang, Shujun Li, Shengpeng Wang, Zhaohui Chen, Michael J. McPhaden
Summary: This study finds that the increased variability of El Nino sea surface temperature under global warming may emerge earlier than previously anticipated, and it is likely to first occur in the eastern Pacific region.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jonathan D. Beverley, Matthew Collins, F. Hugo Lambert, Robin Chadwick
Summary: Research suggests that future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector will weaken, largely due to anomalous circulation changes over the North Pacific. The study also indicates that changes in forcing from equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more significant than changes in the global basic state background circulation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Santiago Hurtado, Eduardo A. Agosta
Summary: The study found that precipitation anomalies in eastern subtropical South America are significantly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with precipitation mainly modulated by regional tropospheric circulation anomalies during the SONDJ season under El Niño events. However, precipitation anomalies in two atypical seasons were primarily due to shifts in sea surface temperature gradients in the equatorial Pacific and changes in Atlantic basin SST anomalies.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yuqiong Zheng, Shangfent Chen, Wen Chen, Bin Yu
Summary: This study finds that the impact of the spring North Pacific meridional mode (PMM) on the following-winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been increasing. The study compares high- and low-correlation periods to understand the factors behind the strengthened impact of PMM. In the high-correlation period, PMM-related sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric anomalies propagate southwestward to the tropical central Pacific via wind-evaporation-SST feedback, resulting in a stronger ENSO-like pattern. In the low-correlation period, PMM-related anomalies do not extend to the deep tropics, leading to weaker impact on ENSO.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Cong Guan, Feng Tian, Michael J. McPhaden, Shijian Hu, Fan Wang
Summary: Salinity anomalies in the central Pacific induce the strongest surface warming during both types of El Nino, tapering off to the east and west. The distinct sea surface salinity zonal structures between the two El Ninos amplify their difference in sea surface temperature magnitude by about 10%. Salinity effects on vertical mixing and entrainment account for the different eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Nino responses.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Huijing Zhang, Wenjun Zhang, Xin Geng, Feng Jiang, Malte F. Stuecker
Summary: Many previous studies have shown that El Nino exhibits strong seasonality in its teleconnections and regional climate impacts. This seasonality is mainly due to the seasonal cycle of the eastern tropical Pacific SST background state and differs between different types of El Nino events.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kilian Vos, Mitchell D. D. Harley, Ian L. L. Turner, Kristen D. D. Splinter
Summary: Analysis of satellite imagery covering over 8,300 km of sandy coastline reveals that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation drives coherent patterns of beach erosion and accretion around the Pacific Rim. Approximately one-third of all transects experience significant erosion during El Nino phases, while approximately one-quarter of all transects experience significant accretion during La Nina events.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jun Ying, Matthew Collins, Wenju Cai, Axel Timmermann, Ping Huang, Dake Chen, Karl Stein
Summary: Determining the emergent climate change signals in the tropical Pacific is crucial for climate action. Model simulations show that the mean sea surface temperature signal is already detectable, and that mean rainfall and ENSO-related signals could emerge around 2040. The results emphasize the importance of understanding the time of emergence of climate change signals and the increasing risks of ENSO-induced climate extremes.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shinu Sheela Wilson, K. Mohanakumar
Summary: This study finds that the wind patterns, tropospheric temperature, and velocity potential of the upper troposphere and lower troposphere have a significant impact on the variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall; the spatial variability and intensity of Australian High in the southern hemisphere play a prominent role in the characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon; subtropical circulations in both hemispheres influence monsoon conditions over India regardless of the El Nino condition.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xieyuan Wang, Tim Li, Chao He
Summary: Through diagnostic analysis of 29 AMIP experiments, the study found that the difference in precipitation patterns in the Indo-western Pacific Ocean warm pool impacts the WNPAC, with different mechanisms affecting the WNPAC response during decaying summers of EP and CP El Nino events.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xiaohui Wang, Tim Li, Suxiang Ya
Summary: Enhanced rainbands in East Asia during the regular El Nino decaying summer progressed northward from June to August, but were only observed in the earlier summer and disappeared in August in the super El Nino composite. A combined observational and modeling study was conducted to investigate the cause of this distinctive feature. The relative roles of the mean state and anomalous heating in causing the northward progression were assessed through numerical experiments. The distinctive rainfall feature in the super El Nino composite was primarily contributed by the 1982/83 and 2015/16 events.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Isaac Campbell, James A. Renwick
Summary: This study examines the relationship between the monthly mean 500 hPa height field (Z500) and its high-frequency variability over 2-8 day periods as an indicator of storm track activity in the Southern Hemisphere. Using maximum covariance analysis, the study identifies the major covariability modes between Z500 and high-frequency variance anomalies on both monthly and submonthly scales. The results show that large-scale circulation patterns, particularly SAM and ENSO, have a significant impact on the covariability. However, the influence of zonal wave 3 (ZW3) remains unclear.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Liwei Zou, Tianjun Zhou
Summary: This study dynamically downscaled future climate changes over East Asia using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The downscaling showed significant improvements in simulating present-day mean and extreme rainfall over China, especially in the Pearl River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin. The projected increases in mean and extreme rainfall in China under different emission scenarios were mainly attributed to thermodynamic processes associated with increased moisture, highlighting the importance of simulated climatology in predicting future rainfall changes.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Meng Zuo, Tianjun Zhou, Wenmin Man
Summary: The study suggests that tropical volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on summer precipitation in the southern Tibetan Plateau region. Model results show that changes in atmospheric circulation and specific humidity are the main factors contributing to the decrease in precipitation. Volcanic eruptions cause a decrease in surface temperature, resulting in a reduction in atmospheric precipitable water.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Longhui Li, Yue Zhang, Tianjun Zhou, Kaicun Wang, Can Wang, Tao Wang, Linwang Yuan, Kangxin An, Chenghu Zhou, Guonian Lu
Summary: This study demonstrates that China's carbon neutrality has the potential to mitigate global warming, with varying impacts at regional scales.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Wenxia Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Tianjun Zhou, Peili Wu, Xiaolong Chen
Summary: This study finds that projections of future extreme precipitation can be made more reliable using a constraint from observed present-day precipitation variability, which reduces projection uncertainty by 20-40% over the extra-tropics.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Linqiang He, Tianjun Zhou, Xiaolong Chen
Summary: As a new generation of global climate models, the monsoon simulation in CMIP6 models has attracted great attention from the climate modeling community. This study uses multiple CMIP models to demonstrate that the dry biases in South Asia are due to less rainfall with both decreased frequency and intensity in a shortened monsoon season. By evaluating key metrics, improvements have been identified in monsoon rainfall simulation in CMIP6 models, which are consistent with the improvements in monsoon annual cycle and rainfall characteristics. Additionally, it is found that the cold SST biases in the northern Indian Ocean are important sources for the persistent dry biases in the CMIP models.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shuai Hu, Tianjun Zhou, Bo Wu
Summary: The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is an important climate signal in regulating the interannual variability of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau. The formation processes of the SNAO-related summer rainfall anomaly in the southeastern and northeastern TP have fundamental differences. Anomalous vertical and horizontal moisture advection make the largest contributions to the summer rainfall anomaly in the southeastern and northeastern TP, respectively.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jie Jiang, Tianjun Zhou
Summary: In 2021, Central Asia experienced a severe agricultural drought, resulting in mass die-offs of crops and livestock. It has been unclear how much human activity has contributed to the decline in soil moisture in this region. Through analysis of simulation results, this study finds that the aggravation of agricultural droughts in southern Central Asia since 1992 can be attributed to both human-induced forcing and internal variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The findings emphasize the importance of considering the interplay between anthropogenic forcing and natural variability in policymaking in this climate-sensitive region.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wenxia Zhang, Yongjun Chen, Tianjun Zhou, Xiaolong Chen, Zikun Ren
Summary: The observed climate includes both external forcings and internal climate variability. Evaluating climate models with the influence of internal variability is desirable, especially with the availability of large ensembles. This study evaluates the FGOALS-g3 LE using multiple observational datasets and finds that internal variability has a significant impact on long-term changes of temperature and precipitation extremes.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Qibei Zhang, Bo Liu, Shuanglin Li, Tianjun Zhou
Summary: This paper evaluates the sea surface temperature (SST) biases of coupled models in CMIP5 and CMIP6. The overall performance of CMIP6 models is better than CMIP5 models in reproducing SST climatology, with a lower multi-model ensemble mean (MME) globally averaged absolute bias. Regionally, cooling biases are reduced in the Northwest Pacific and North Atlantic, while warming biases are increased in the Northeast Pacific, Southeast Atlantic, and Southern Ocean. These changes are mainly attributed to the combined effects of clear-sky surface downward longwave radiation and cloud radiative effect, partially reduced by enhanced cooling bias in clear-sky surface downward shortwave radiation.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xin Huang, Tianjun Zhou, Johnny C. L. Chan, Ruifen Zhan, Ziming Chen, Jiuwei Zhao
Summary: Reliable projections of tropical cyclone activities in the western North Pacific are crucial for climate policy-making in coastal Asia. This study identifies a new source of uncertainty in the projections arising from different tropical cyclone identification schemes. Model uncertainty is of secondary importance, while internal variability noticeably impacts near-term projections.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ziming Chen, Tianjun Zhou, Xiaolong Chen, Wenxia Zhang, Meng Zuo, Wenmin Man, Yun Qian
Summary: Reliable regional temperature projections, including heat extremes, are essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Researchers have developed an emergent constraint framework to obtain constrained temperature warming over China. The results show that the constrained model is more reliable and reduces about half of the uncertainty compared to raw projections. The impact of extreme heat on China is lower than previously predicted.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ben Yang, Zhun Guo, Fengfei Song, Yaocun Zhang, Tianjun Zhou, Yun Qian
Summary: Cloud and convection have a strong influence on atmospheric energy budgets, with responses varying across timescales. Based on atmospheric model simulations, this study found that responses in radiative and sensible heat fluxes converge more rapidly compared to condensation heat associated with precipitation. Confining the fast processes of radiative and sensible heat fluxes can reduce uncertainty in long-term precipitation simulations. These findings provide insights for improving computational efficiency and bridging the gap between convective-scale and equilibrium-state outcomes in climate models.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jie Jiang, Tianjun Zhou
Summary: A decline in anthropogenic aerosol emissions is expected in the future, but the climate effects of aerosol removal and greenhouse gas emissions at the regional level are not well distinguished and constrained. Using state-of-the-art climate models, it was found that the observed warming from 1961 to 2020 in the Tibetan Plateau is mainly attributed to greenhouse gas emissions, but future temperature rise will be influenced by both greenhouse gas concentration increase and reduction in aerosol emissions.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Daokai Xue, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, Haiyan Teng, Fengfei Song, Tianjun Zhou, Yaocun Zhang
Summary: The study assesses the future changes in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation by projecting it onto the two leading dynamical modes of internal variability. The results show increasing trends and daily variability in both modes, indicating potential hydrological extremes in East Asian regions in the coming decades. This study provides evidence of the robust Asian monsoon rainfall response to anthropogenic warming.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ziqian Zhong, Bin He, Hans W. Chen, Deliang Chen, Tianjun Zhou, Wenjie Dong, Cunde Xiao, Shang-ping Xie, Xiangzhou Song, Lanlan Guo, Ruiqiang Ding, Lixia Zhang, Ling Huang, Wenping Yuan, Xingming Hao, Duoying Ji, Xiang Zhao
Summary: In recent decades, there has been an increase in the diurnal temperature range, with daily maximum temperatures warming at a faster rate while daily minimum temperatures remain stable. This may be due to reduced cloud cover leading to increased solar radiation.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)