Article
Engineering, Civil
Hadush Meresa, Yongqiang Zhang, Jing Tian, Muhammad Abrar Faiz
Summary: Evaluation of peak flood magnitude and frequency in the future at a catchment scale under global warming is crucial for water resource management and flood risk management. This study develops a framework to examine changes and disentangle uncertainties in peak flow, which is tested at five Awash catchments in Ethiopia, a region exposed to extreme flood risk. The results showed that projected extreme precipitation and peak flow magnitude could increase substantially in the coming decades by 30% to 55%.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zhi-Ting Chen, Hong-Yan Liu, Chong-Yang Xu, Xiu-Chen Wu, Bo-Yi Liang, Jing Cao, Deliang Chen
Summary: Climate warming has varying effects on vegetation growth in different regions. Under sustainable development scenario, there is no significant change in vegetation growth, but under high carbon emissions and severe warming scenario, vegetation growth may increase significantly in Northeast Asia. This is likely due to the high temperature sensitivities of deciduous needleleaf forests and permanent wetlands in these regions. When the temperature sensitivity exceeds 0.05, the increase in vegetation growth becomes more prominent.
ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Forestry
Jonas Hinze, Axel Albrecht, Hans-Gerhard Michiels
Summary: Climate change will impact the site conditions for European vegetation, leading to shifts in the potential distribution of species and habitats. A multiclass model was used to predict future vegetation potentials based on current climate data and projections for 2061-2080. The results suggest significant changes in vegetation potentials across Europe, with boreal forests losing potential area and Mediterranean forests and steppes expanding. The predicted alterations in vegetation potentials have important implications for nature conservation strategies and forest management.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Ludovic Oudin, Guillaume Thirel, Lila Collet
Summary: In this study, we analyzed the sources of uncertainty in the potential evaporation (PE) modeling chain for hydrological studies. The results showed that the contributions of different factors, such as PE formulations, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, GCMs, and RCMs, varied. All PE formulations showed similar future trends, but the Penman-Monteith formulation was found to be more representative in hydrological impact studies.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Wei Chen, Shuang Bai, Haimeng Zhao, Xuerong Han, Lihe Li
Summary: The study found that the vegetation coverage in Southwest China and its karst region experienced significant increases, with strong stability and sustainability in most areas. Human activities contributed more to vegetation restoration than climate change.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Changyong Park, Seok-Woo Shin, Ana Juzbasic, Dong-Hyun Cha, Youngeun Choi, Seung-Ki Min, Yeon-Hee Kim, Eun-Chul Chang, Myoung-Seok Suh, Joong-Bae Ahn, Young-Hwa Byun
Summary: This is the first study to quantitatively evaluate the changes in uncertainty components of future temperature and precipitation projections using multiple regional climate models over East Asia. The study found that internal variability and model uncertainty were the main factors affecting near-term temperature projections, while scenario uncertainty became the dominant factor after mid-term projections. Precipitation showed similar uncertainty factors as temperature in the near-term projections, but differed significantly in terms of the contribution of internal variability to total variance. This study is significant as it provides new possibilities for considering climate uncertainties in the development of climate change policies at the regional scale.
Review
Environmental Sciences
I Hagen, C. Huggel, L. Ramajo, N. Chacon, J. P. Ometto, J. C. Postigo, E. J. Castellanos
Summary: This paper provides a comprehensive assessment and synthesis of climate-related risks and adaptation potential in Central and South America. The study identifies various risks, such as food insecurity, floods and landslides, water scarcity, epidemics of vector-borne diseases, biome shift in the Amazon Forest, coral bleaching, coastal risks, and systemic failure due to cascading impacts. The analysis also highlights the importance of strengthening adaptive capacity and conducting further research on the risk-adaptation nexus in the region.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Water Resources
Thatkiat Meema, Yasuto Tachikawa, Yutaka Ichikawa, Kazuaki Yorozu
Summary: This study assesses the sensitivity of Nam Ngum 1 reservoir operation to water resource uncertainty driven by climate change and upstream cascade dam development. Results show that these factors will impact the inflow and energy production of the reservoir. The study suggests that hydropower operation should be adapted to the effects of climate change.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Baohui Mu, Xiang Zhao, Jiacheng Zhao, Naijing Liu, Longping Si, Qian Wang, Na Sun, Mengmeng Sun, Yinkun Guo, Siqing Zhao
Summary: According to the study, China's major cities experienced an overall increase in vegetation cover from 2001 to 2018, although certain cities in the core area and expansion area showed a decrease. The expansion of urbanization, climate factors, and CO2 were identified as the main contributors to vegetation changes, with climate factors and CO2 having the largest contributions.
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Hooman Gholami, Morteza Lotfirad, Seyed Mohammad Ashrafi, Seyed Mostafa Biazar, Vijay P. Singh
Summary: This study aims to propose an approach for reducing the uncertainty of using GCM models in predicting future runoff conditions in the Gharesu basin, Iran. The results show that the uncertainty of runoff estimation is reduced when using the ensemble model compared to any single GCM model, and the prediction indicates an increase in floods and drier conditions in the future period.
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Baohui Mu, Xiang Zhao, Donghai Wu, Xinyan Wang, Jiacheng Zhao, Haoyu Wang, Qian Zhou, Xiaozheng Du, Naijing Liu
Summary: This study analyzed the vegetation cover change trends in China from 2001 to 2018 and found that CO2, climate-related factors, and land cover change played significant roles in driving these changes. CO2 was identified as the primary driving factor for vegetation cover changes, indicating its importance in vegetation growth research.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Limin Zhang, Fei Yuan, Bing Wang, Liliang Ren, Chongxu Zhao, Jiayong Shi, Yi Liu, Shanhu Jiang, Xiaoli Yang, Tao Chen, Shuya Liu
Summary: Extreme flow projections are essential for flood and drought prevention and water resources management in the face of climate change. This study established a modeling system with multiple components to project future extreme flow changes and found that climate models are the main source of uncertainty in mean monthly streamflow and extreme low flow projections. Additionally, different emission scenarios and statistical downscaling methods also impact the projected results.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Laura Devitt, Jeffrey Neal, Gemma Coxon, James Savage, Thorsten Wagener
Summary: This study presents a global analysis of the sensitivity of inundated areas and population exposure to varying flood event magnitudes globally for 1.2 million river reaches. The authors show that topography and drainage areas correlate with flood sensitivities as well as with societal behavior. Flooding is one of the most common natural hazards, causing disastrous impacts worldwide.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Toshio Fujimi, Masahide Watanabe, Hirokazu Tatano
Summary: This study explored how different uncertainty representation formats in climate change projections affected public trust, perceived accuracy, perceived likelihood, and concern. The multi-value format was found to enhance trust and perceived accuracy, and partially increase perceived likelihood and concern, compared to the average and range formats, regardless of participants' numeracy and education level. This suggests that the multi-value format might be effective for communicating multi-model projections and promoting public trust and support for climate policies.
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE
(2021)
Editorial Material
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Flavio Lehner, Ed Hawkins, Rowan Sutton, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Frances C. Moore
Summary: Combining new constraints on socio-economic trajectories and climate system's response to emissions can significantly reduce projection uncertainties, providing more accurate information for regional climate adaptation decisions.